适应渠道演变：快速消费品的机遇与挑战 中国购物者报告2025，第二卷

China Shopper Report 2025, vol. 2 Authors and acknowledgments Bruno Lannesis a senior partner with Bain & Company’s Consumer Products and Retail practicesand is based in Shanghai. You can contact him by email at bruno.lannes@bain.com. Derek Dengis a senior partner with Bain & Company’s Consumer Products and Retail practicesin Greater China and is based in Shanghai. You can contact him by email at derek.deng@bain.com. Rachel Leeis the general manager of Worldpanel China. You can contact her by email atRachel.lee@ctrchina.cn. This report is a joint effort between Bain & Company and Worldpanel. The authors extend gratitude to allwho contributed to it, especially Monica Li, Ranqi Liu, Kelly Wong, Yi Zhang, Joanne Xie, Louise Lu, and Adapting to Channel Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for FMCG Contents Executive summary2A look back on the first three quarters of 20253Category update: Packaged food, home care, and personal care sustaingrowth while beverage downturn deepens6 Pricing update: Deflationary trend continued but showed signs of slowingafter an acceleration in 2024 Decoding emerging channel dynamics Implications for brands25 Executive summary This is the 14th consecutive year we have tracked the shopping behaviors of Chinese consumers.Our ongoing research provides a long-term perspective on 27 categories of fast-moving consumer goods(FMCG) purchased for home consumption in China. These categories span the four major sectors of In this year’s Volume 2 report, we provide updates on the following two topics, followed by the implications •Topic 1:Overall FMCG market performance, categories, and pricing in China for the first three •Topic 2:In-depth channel dynamics shaping near-term growth trajectories After a weak 2024, China’s FMCG market showed signs of stabilization in 2025. Total FMCG spendinggrew +1.3% YTD Q3, supported by +3.8% volume growth and a −2.4% decline in average selling price (ASP).After a strong Q1 (+2.7% year over year), FMCG growth moderated to +0.7% in Q2 and +0.4% in Q3. Lower-tier cities (Tiers 3–5) accounted for roughly 80% of market expansion, driven by continuedurbanization, deeper brand penetration, and greater access to emerging channels such as snack collectionstores and online to offline (O2O). These markets also benefit from relatively lower living costs compared Across sectors, packaged food (+3.4%) and home care (+3.3%) led market growth, while personal care (+1.1%)saw modest gains and beverages (-1.1%) turned negative in Q2 and Q3 amid rising price competition and Price deflation, which accelerated through 2024 (−3.4%), began to ease in 2025 (−2.4%), reflectingthe emergence of a new normal where consumers balance price and quality more thoughtfully in On the channel front, offline formats remained under pressure overall, but emerging demand generationchannels—membership stores, snack collection stores, discount stores—expanded rapidly, posting +40%,+51%, and +92% year-over-year growth, respectively. Similarly, O2O channels rebounded strongly in 2025,up +7.9% year-over-year in Q3 after last year’s decline, driven by rising penetration (+4 percentage points) A look back on the first three quarters of 2025 For the first three quarters of 2025, China’s FMCG market recorded modest YTD growth of +1.3%.Volume rose +3.8%, partially offset by a −2.4% decline in ASP. Quarterly trends show that momentum wasstrongest in Q1 (+2.7%) as some macroeconomic indicators improved, the government announced policies Volume remained the primary driver of growth, while price deflation moderated There were clear signs of price deflation stabilizing, with the rate improving from −3.4% FY2023–24 to−2.4% YTD 2025 Q3 (see Figure 2). This moderation was supported by a contraction in promotionalintensity—overall promotion share fell from 24.1% to 23.0%. Personal care and home care, in particular, Adapting to Channel Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for FMCG Percentage, 2020–25 Q3 YTD Lower-tier cities emerge as pivotal engines for market growth Tier 3–5 cities accounted for around 80% of total FMCG market expansion in 2025, with volumes rising4%–6% and helping to offset 2%–3% ASP declines (see Figure 3). This growth was driven by continuedurbanization, resilient local consumption, and deeper penetration by retailers and FMCG brands,which increasingly view these low-tier markets as the next key growth frontier. Retail formats such as Together, these dynamics are reshaping China’s FMCG growth map, positioning Tier 3–5 cities as theprimary drivers of volume recovery while competition intensifies in mature urban centers. Adapting to Channel Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for FMCG Adapting to Channel Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for FMCG Category update: Packaged food, home care, and personal care sustain Across the four major FMCG sectors,packaged foodled growth in the first three quarters of 2025 witha +3.4% value increase, driven by stable