东帝汶经济报告：升级-东盟成员国如何支持东帝汶的经济转型

Leveling Up: How ASEAN Membership Can SupportTimor-Leste’s Economic Transformation April2026 ©2026The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product ofthe World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work donot necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors ofthe World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work anddoes not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respectto the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors,denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part ofthe World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of suchboundaries.The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by thoseauthors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiverof the privileges andimmunities ofthe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Becausethe World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, fornon-commercialpurposes as long as full attributionto this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2026.Timor-Leste Economic Report:Leveling Up—HowASEANMembershipCanSupportTimor-Leste’sEconomic Transformation.Washington, DC:World Bank. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,TheWorld Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Coverimage:Adapted fromfreepik.com. Used with the permission offreepik.com. Further permission required forreuse. Otherimages::Executive Summary, Section 1,Section2are©Lélio de Jesus Alves(alveslelio63@gmail.com),andSection 3 is© Ministryof Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Timor-Leste.Used with the permissionoftheMinistry of Foreign Affairs andCooperation of Timor-LesteandLélio de Jesus Alves. Further permission requiredfor reuse. Cover design: ArsiantiThe report was designed and typeset by Arsianti. Timor-Leste Economic Report Leveling Up: How ASEANMembershipCanSupportTimor-Leste’s Economic Transformation April2026 Acknowledgments The Timor-Leste Economic Report is a biannual World Bank report that assesses the latestmacroeconomic developments, outlook, and risks for the country, as well as specific developmentchallenges for Timor-Leste's economy. In doing so, the report aims to inform public policy debate andis geared toward a wide audience, including the public, government, private sector, civil societyorganizations, and other domestic and international stakeholders. The Timor-Leste Economic Report is a product of the World Bank Group, and receives strategicguidance from Carolyn Turk, Division Director for Indonesia and Timor-Leste. The report wasprepared under the leadership of Lalita Moorty (Regional Practice Director), Marco Hernandez(Practice Manager), and David Freedman (World Bank Group Resident Representative). Thechapters were led by Amina Coulibaly andYus Medina Pakpahan, with contributions from DavidKnight (Lead Economist). Ana Oliveira provided administrative support and coordinated the report'slaunch event. The report also benefited from comments provided by Csilla Demet Kaya (SeniorEconomist), Csilla Lakatos (Senior Economist), and Dhruv Sharma (Senior Economist). We extend our appreciation to the Timor-Leste Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Foreign Affairs andCooperation,National Institute of Statistics Timor-Leste,Banco Central de Timor-Leste,andAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat, whose data served as the foundationfor this report. The data cut-off date isMarch30, 2026. To receive the Timor-Leste Economic Report and relatedpublications by email, use the following email address:adeoliveira1@worldbank.org. For questionsand comments, email:acoulibaly4@worldbank.org. Contents 1.Recent Developments: Where the Economy Stands..................................................102.Outlook and Risks: Stable but Increasingly Fragile...................................................123.Special Focus: ASEAN Accession as a Reform Platform for Timor-Leste’sEconomic Transformation............................................................................................13 1.1.Regional Context: Slowing Momentum in East Asia..................................................161.2.Economic Growth: Stronger Momentum but Largely Driven by PublicSpending....................