博通（AVGO）：与Meta扩展多代定制芯片合作

arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com ?AVGO Tuesdayafternoon announced a multi-year,multi-generation extended partnershipwith Meta to“support"multi-gigawatts of Meta's custom silicon, MTIA."The initialcommitmentexceeds1GW (withmoretocome)withplanstoextendthroughatleast2029,and includes multiple generations of MTIA chips fortraining and inference, as wellas networking components while extending beyond simply hardware supplytofocus onsystem-leveloptimizationandR&Daswell. into an advisor role where he will"provide guidance on Meta's custom silicon roadmap andhelp shape the future of their infrastructure investments"Webelievethe depthand scale ofthe partnership is such that it is becoming challenging to manage potential conflicts; as suchwe are not concerned by the move (it's likely a positive read frankly). numbersvswhatthecompanysharedin March,thoughthe2029timeframedoesappear new.On their last earnings call AVGO indicated the MTIA roadmap was"alive andwell" and that they would be scaling Meta to multiple GW in 2027 and beyond.And a recentMeta blog post laid out plans to scalefour newgenerations of MTIA chips over the next 2years. Both statements seem consistent with Tuesday's announcement. However, the“andbeyond" part now has a bit more color to it, with the 2029 timeframe potentially offeringsomemore support and perhaps giving more comfort on the sustainabilityof demandvisibility overthe next several years (similartothe recent Google news which went outto2031). Recall that AVGOguidedtoFY27Al revenues of~$100B,a numberis lookingincreasingly light to us, with upside consequently feeling likely; we note that every ~$10B correspondstoroughly$1pershare in EPS,andthestockon thatbasislooks attractivetoushere. WerateAVGOOutperformwitha$525PT. deployment,and superb margins &FCF. References to"Bernstein"orthe"Firm"in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2o24onwards)，SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited，SanfordAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffliates. ForAVG0, we apply a~30xmultiple to our FY2027pro-forma EPSestimate ($17.73)equating to a $525price target. customers,failuretoexecuteontargetedmergersynergies,lack ofcashreturn,andunexpected changestotopmanagement. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges,versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: :Outperform:Stockwill outpacethemarket indexbymorethan 15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp :Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the marketindex by more than 15 pp are suspendedtemporarily,areno longer current, and shouldthereforenot be reliedupon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted,at thepresent time.The covering analystmay continue to publish research reports on thecompanyto update investorsoneventsanddevelopments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Bernsteinbrand stock ratings are based on a 12-month time horizon. Autonomousbrand-commonstocks AndFinancialServicesIndex(BEBANKS)andBloombergEuropeDevMktFinancialsLargeandMidCapPriceRetIndexEUR(EDMFI)indexfordeveloped Europeanbanks and Payments,theBloomberg Europe5OO InsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)forEuropeanSelect Industry (SPSlINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF)for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to thesector (not the market). targets are suspendedtemporarily,are no longercurrent, and should therefore notberelied upon Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelyoneventsanddevelopments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Autonomousbrandcommonstockratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon. Autonomousbrand-preferredstocks The A