AI之战：Claude又一个重要月份，Gemini增长势头强劲

AI Wars: Another big month for Claude,strongGemini growth continues Maintain Rating:BUY| PO:370.00 USD| Price:317.32 USD Traffic: Gemini +8% m/m, ChatGPT -6%, Claude +90% InMar, per Similarweb, global daily avg. web visits to Google were up 3% y/y to 2.8bn,ChatGPT +26% y/y to 185mn, Gemini +659% to 84mn & Claude +521% to 20mn. Onm/m basis, Google was -3%, ChatGPT -6%, Gemini +8%, and Claude +90%.US webvisitsto Google were +1% y/y to 543mn, ChatGPT +53% to 34mn (6% of Google),Gemini +431% to 10mn & Claude +528% to 5.5mn. For m/m, Google was -4%, ChatGPT-9%, Gemini +0.1% & Claude +67%. Gemini was solid & Claude had another strongmonth, likely due to positive press on model improvements and stance on use of model. DAUs: Gemini +9% m/m, ChatGPT -3%, Google +1%InMar, per Sensor Tower, Google global mobile DAUs were +12% y/y (+1% m/m) to 2.2bn, ChatGPT +141% y/y to 427mn (-3% m/m), Gemini +332% y/y to 89mn (+9%m/m), Claude +848% to 9.7mn (+129% m/m), Perplexity was +136% y/y to 9mn, andGrok was at 12mn. In March, Gemini added 8mn global mobile DAUs, ChatGPT DAUsdeclined 13mn m/m, Claude added 5.5mn, and Grok added 0.4mn DAUs. Search share: Google globalshare marginally up y/yPer Statcounter, Google’s global search share was down 6bps m/m vs. Bing up 15bps m/m. On y/y basis, Google’s market share was +24bps y/y (vs down 14bps in Feb) to90.0% while Bing gained 112bps y/y (vs +103bps in Febr) to 5.1%, and Others weredown 151bps y/y to 3.4%. In the US, Google’s search market share was +83bps m/m to85.0% (down 183bps y/y), while Bing was down 63bps m/m and up 226bps y/y to 9.9%. Claudegains persist, Gemini strong & Google stableClaude had another month of stronguser growth with growing adoption of Claude Code and agentic features. For Gemini, traffic and user growth trends remain strong whileGoogle traffic growth was stable y/y, suggesting Claude’s traction was incremental or atexpense of AI competitors. We continue to see an opportunity for AI integration inGoogle Search to drive revenue upside through improved intent understanding andbetter monetization of zero-click queries. Maintain Buy. Catalyst: Cloud Next Conference(Apr 22), I/O Conf (May 19), ads in Gemini app. Risk is relatively elevated valuation (vsrecent history) & new competitive product launches (GPT-6, OpenAI ad ramp, etc.). At~$315, Alphabet is valued at 24x Street‘27E EPS (vs S&P at 20x). iQprofileSMAlphabet Company SectorInternet/e-Commerce Company Description Alphabet is a global technology company focused on keyareas, such as search,advertising, operating systems andplatforms, enterprise and hardware products. The companygenerates revenue primarily by delivering online advertisingand by selling apps and content on Google Play as well ashardware products. The company provides its products andservices in more than 100 languages and in 190 countries,regions, and territories. Investment Rationale We see Alphabet as well positioned long term with leadingAI technology to apply to search, YouTube, and Cloudbusinesses.Alphabet should also benefit from increasingmobile usage, video usage, Google Play activity, andconnected device activity (including autos). We believe thatAlphabet should trade at a premium to a media peer groupgiven technology leadership, high margins, and strong cashflow generation for buybacks. Stock Data Average Daily Volume30,238,960Shares / Common - Dual Listed1.00 March Data Summary Fortraffic, per Similarweb, global daily avg. web visits to Google were +3% y/y to 2.8bn,ChatGPT +26% y/y to 185mn, Gemini +659% to 84mn & Claude +521% to 20mn. Onm/m basis, Google was -3%, ChatGPT -6%, Gemini +8%, and Claude +90%.US webvisitsto Google were +1% y/y to 543mn, ChatGPT +53% y/y to 34mn (~6% of Google),Gemini +431% y/y to 10mn & Claude +528% to 5.5mn. On m/m, Google was -4%,ChatGPT -9%, Gemini +0.1% & Claude +67%. In March, Claude had another month ofstrong traffic and user growth driven by growing adoption of Claude Code and agenticfeatures. ChatGPT was down m/m, possibly due to some share shift to Claude. Formobile DAUs, per Sensor Tower, Google global mobile DAUs were +12% y/y (+1%m/m) to 2.2bn, ChatGPT +141% y/y to 427mn (-3% m/m), Gemini +332% y/y to 89mn(+9% m/m), Claude +848% to 9.7mn (+129% m/m), Perplexity was +136% y/y to 9mn,and Grok was at 12mn. Gemini added 8mn global DAUs, ChatGPT was -13mn, Claude+5.5mn, and Grok +0.4mn DAUs, reflecting continued incremental mobile usage drivenby AI capabilities. Google’s global search share marginally up y/y in MarchPer Statcounter, in March, Google global search share was down 6bps m/m vs. Bing up 15bps m/m. On a y/y basis, Google’s market share was up 24bps y/y (vs down 14bps inFebruary) to 90.0% while Bing’s gained 112bps y/y (vs up 103bps in February) to 5.1%,and Others were down 151bps y/y to 3.4% (which includes Yandex, Baidu, Naver,DuckDuckGo, and other smaller search engines but not ChatGPT).In the US, Google’ssearch market share was up 83bps m/m to 85.0% (down 183