2026年一季度美国信贷市场季度总结（英）2026

Q1 2026 USCredit MarketsQuarterly Wrap Source: PitchBook | LCD • Data through March 31, 2026 Source: PitchBook | LCD • Data through March 31, 2026Direct lending analysis is based on transactions covered by LCD News Market recaps 3Leveraged loan volume, spreads, credit quality all flash risk-off9Private credit lenders focus on software, ARR loans14CLO issuers pull back to weigh software, macro risks 19 War trips up fast start in high yield tied to M&A/AI24 US Lev Fin Survey: AI, geopolitics stir risk-off sentiment28 Electronic Arts highlights turbulent quarter for global issuance Leveraged loan volume, spreads, credit quality all flash risk-off Heading into 2026, the consensus in the US leveraged loan marketwas that repricing would fade and M&A would gradually take overas the primary volume driver — a rotation the data through Marchbroadly confirms, though the handoff has been bumpier thanexpected. At $257 billion across 2,375 deals — which includes platformacquisitions, add-ons, and equity growth transactions — the firstquarter is the slowest quarter (by deal value) since Q2 2025. The anticipated M&A resurgence has run into stiff headwinds:tariff and trade policy uncertainty, AI-driven concerns aboutsoftware credit, geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflictand its effect on oil prices, and diminished expectations forrate cuts. The repricing engine has largely exhausted itself, but M&A-drivenvolume hasn’t fully filled the gap. Q1 Key Takeaways: • Overall leveraged loan activity is 32% behind last year’s pace,dragged down by weak refinancing and repricing levels amidsoftware sector headwinds and a broader risk-off tone. These headwinds translated into a slow start to 2026 for leveragedloan issuance. • M&A-driven BSL issuance reached a four-year high in Q1, thoughthat headline masks notable concentration — both in a handful ofmega-deals and in higher-rated borrowers. Total primary market activity — including repricing amendments —is $241 billion in Q1, running 32% behind last year’s pace. The shortfall was concentrated in the more opportunisticcategories: refinancings and repricings are trailing Q1 2025 by 41%and 39%, respectively. • Leveraged loans have lost 0.55% YTD — the weakest Q1 since2020. •The BSL market remained open but at a cost — B-flat spreadswidened 100 bps in February and March, relative to Januarylevels. The more encouraging signal is in net new issuance, which at $69.7billion is only 5% behind last year, and is running above the quarterlyaverage for 2024 and 2025 combined — suggesting that deal-drivenactivity, while not yet accelerating, has held up better than theheadline numbers imply. • Measurable loan demand fell to a three-year low in Q1, driven bysharply negative fund flows; CLO issuance held up, but not enoughto offset the retail retreat. •Refinancing issuance and maturity extensions have both slowedmaterially, as borrowers made less headway against the maturitywall than a year ago. •Credit quality divergence is widening — lower-rated borrowersface the most maturity pressure, yet have made the leastprogress, with wider spreads and cautious sentiment leaving littleopportunity for near-term relief. The US private equity dealmaking recovery that built through2024 and peaked in 2025 — the third and fourth quarters of 2025featured $339 billion and $320 billion, respectively — hit a wall inearly 2026. Within that new issuance, the M&A-driven component is showinggenuine strength. Buyout, sponsored add-on, and corporateM&A financing totals $51.2 billion in Q1, up slightly from Q1 2025and marking the strongest opening quarter for M&A-related BSLissuance since the Fed started hiking rates in 2022. PE sponsorsalone raised $29 billion to finance buyouts, also the highestcomparable reading since Q1 2022. There is also a timing dimension worth noting. While it isencouraging to see large deals clearing the market — particularly EAand Sealed Air, which launched in March despite elevated volatility— the underlying buyouts were announced in late 2025. The firstquarter loan volume uptick is therefore drawing on a pipeline builtduring a decidedly stronger dealmaking environment. The slowdown in PE activity visible in Q1 deal data has not yet fullyworked its way through to loan issuance, but the lag suggests thatheadwinds will continue. Credit quality distribution further reflects the cautious investorsentiment. Borrowers rated BB-minus by at least one agencyaccounted for 37% of first-quarter M&A-related loan volume — upfrom 31% in 2025 and the highest share recorded for any full yearsince 2015. Meanwhile, the riskiest tier of borrowers, those ratedB-minus by at least one agency, represented just 20% of buyoutand M&A loan volume, tying 2023 for the lowest such readingin a decade. However, a closer look at the composition tempers theoptimism somewhat. More than 40% of first-quarterinstitutional loan volume was concentrated in just five mega-transactions —Hologic,Electronic