欧洲信贷市场季度总结（英）2026

EUROPEANCredit MarketsQuarterly Wrap ...while the bond market undershot lofty expectations... European leveraged loan issuance slumped in the first quarter... Market recaps 101314 3Issuance slumps in Q1 as AI, geopolitics roil markets3Loan repricings roar, then retreat7HY amasses heavy deal backlog as Q1 supply stalls CLO issuance fast out the blocks, but cools in MarchDirect lending dealflow stymied by risk trifectaStructural shift as continuation vehicles fade Issuance slumps in first quarter as AI, geopolitics roil markets European leveraged loan issuance slumped to its lowest first-quarter total since 2023 as the Iran war, oil price shocks andstagflation concerns piled onto a market already reeling from AI-disruption fears. Game on Nevertheless,Electronic Artsundoubtedly demonstrated the depthof demand in leveraged finance, closing its cross-border buyoutdebt raise with an orderbook exceeding $50 billion towards the endof the quarter. Against a choppy trading backdrop and episodic pauses inprimary market activity, €22.7 billion of loans launched in Q12026 — well below €41.4 billion in Q1 2025. Demonstrating theimpact of geopolitical events, the clear majority — 82% — of theQ1 issuance volume came before the Feb. 28 commencement ofairstrikes on Iran. Of the $12.5 billion institutional debt package for this deal, roughly€2.8 billion ($3.25 billion) was raised in Europe. Following arebalancing between tranches that were initially expected to be splitevenly, the loan accounted for €1.75 billion of the debt, leaving theeuro bond at €1.08 billion. Pricing for EA reflected the scale of the debt raise. For a BB-/B1(issuer) and BB/Ba3 (issue) rating line-up, both tranches clearedat the tight end of talk, at E+350/98.50 on the loan and 6.25% onthe bond. On an all-in basis, including the forward curve over fouryears, the loan yields 6.76%, implying a premium of roughly 50 bpsto the bond. The deal also marks a clear shift from pricing at the start of theyear, when B2-rated loans were regularly clearing in the E+300 areawith little-to-no OID. Loan repricings roar, then retreat With demand still outstripping net new supply amid comparablylow M&A and LBO volumes and a healthy churn of repayments,investors conceded repricings on €39.4 billion of loan facilities inQ1 — up sharply from just €14.3 billion on this measure in Q4 2025.Notably, the Q1 repricing volume was the second-highest suchquarterly total on record, behind only the high watermark of €56.8billion tracked in Q1 2025. M&A activity Meanwhile, loans funding M&A and LBO deals — the lifeblood of theleveraged credit markets — fell short of the meaningful resurgencethat market participants had hoped for, though this activity isshowing signs of recovery. However, looking underneath that impressive headline number,repricing activity collapsed from the record €31.6 billion start in From a Q1 2023 nadir of €5.7 billion, M&A-related volume came inat a healthy €10.2 billion in Q1 2026, though it remains down fromthe 2021 peaks. During that bumper year for M&A transactions,Q1 2021 generated €16.4 billion of M&A-related supply (whichpreceded a post-GFC record quarter of €25.9 billion in Q2 2021). When comparing the first quarters of 2026 and 2021, there is ahigher concentration of large loans among fewer issuers this timearound — potentially masking the recovery in terms of number ofdeals clearing the market. In Q1 2021, only 12% of issuers fundingM&A and LBO deals did so with institutional loans of €1 billion orlarger. In Q1 2026, 24% of issuers came with €1 billion-plus loans. Meanwhile, the volume of loan refinancings — which drove activityin 2024 and 2025 — contracted to €9.2 billion in the first quarter,versus €22.3 billion in Q1 2025. March 9, its lowest level since June 2023. A mid-March rebound to94.79 proved short-lived with the ELLI closing out the quarter at aweighted average bid of 94.48 — just 4 bps off the March 9 low, and219 bps below where prices stood at the end of 2025. January as AI and geopolitical concerns sparked a broad-basedselling of risk — dragging most European loans below the par callthreshold by the end of March. Downward migration For much of 2024 and early 2025 (before the April 2 ‘Liberation Day’announcement on US tariffs), European loan prices were hovering inthe 97–98.5 range. Illustrating the dramatic downward migration of prices, roughly64.5% of the Morningstar European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI)was priced at par or above at the end of last year. By March 31, thisshare had capitulated to just 5.9%. Ground moves Picking up the slack, the bucket of deals priced at 99–99.9 surgedto 40.75%, from 8.02% at the end of 2025. Having borne the brunt of the AI-related fallout earlier in the quarter,European loans later regained lost ground over other risk assetclasses as Middle East tensions took hold. Reflecting deeper secondary discounts, 16% of loans sat below the90-price threshold at the end of Q1, up from 10%