固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The new GZFINH 4.05 04/15/29 was down 0.4ptfrom RO at par this morning.We saw PBs selling HK property names, which were overall down 0.3pt.Asian IG space was unchanged to 2bps wider. FOSUNI 28 rose 2.4pts.EHICAR 26 was 1.8pts higher. FTLNHD 27 up 0.7pt. AVIILC 28 down 0.7pt. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk INDYIJ:FY25 adj. EBITDA declined 18.6% yoy on softened coal demandand ASP. Maintain buy on INDYIJ 8.75 05/07/29. INDYIJ 29s down 0.2ptthis morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Reflation broadens upstream, while final demand still lags.CMBI expects the CPI, PPI and GDP deflator to reflate from 0.1%,-2.6%and-1% in 2025 to 0.8%, 1% and 0.9% in 2026. The rise in price levels maypush back the PBOC’s rate cut to the end of 3Q with room for a 10bps LPR Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,FOSUNI 26-29 were unchanged to 1.9pts higher. Media reportedthat Fosun weighs options to sell its 20.45% stake in Banco ComercialPortuguês SA to raise cash and streamline its portfolio. WESCHI 28-29 were1.1pts firmer. EHICAR 26-27 were 0.1pt lower to 0.4pt higher. eHi waived theminimum acceptance level of 85% and accepted 63.51% of EHICAR 709/21/26 validly tendered, leaving cUSD97mn of of EHICAR 7 09/21/26 toremain outstanding and issuing cUSD152mn of new bonds due 2029. In HK,FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.7pts. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was 1.4pts higher. InChineseproperties,LNGFOR 27-32 were 0.1-0.4pt higher.FUTLAN28/FTLLNHD 26-29 were 0.5pt lower to 0.1pt higher. TW lifers tightened 5-8bpsamid RMs liftingNSINTWandSHIKON.InKR space,LGENSO/HYNMTR/POHANG/GSCCOR tightened 5-10bps. Financials andquasi-sovereign papers like KOMRMR/KOROIL/SHNHAN/WOORIB alsoclosed 2–5bps tighter. In JP space, recent MUFG and MIZUHO issuestightened 4-6bps, while the rest of JP IG credits traded 1-3bps tighter.RESLIF 6.875 Perp was 0.3pt higher. Flows in JP AT1s and insurance subswere moderate two-way overall across Asia and London sessions. In SE Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.11%), Dow (-0.56%) and Nasdaq (+0.35%) were mixedon last Friday. US Mar’26 CPI was+0.9%mom/+3.3% yoy, lower than the market expectation of +1.0% mom/+3.4% yoy, respectively. UST yieldwas higher on last Friday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.81%/3.94%/4.31%/4.91%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 INDYIJ:FY25 adj. EBITDA declined 18.6% on softened coal demand and ASP Despitethe weaker commodity prices, Indonesian HYs’ technical remains strong as issuers have been activelymaking uses lower-cost onshore funding alternatives to repay and early redeem their offshore bonds. At 101.1,INDYIJ 8.75 05/07/29 is trading at YTM of 8.2%. We maintain buy on INDYIJ 8.75 05/07/29 as a good carryplay. We believe that Indika remains a candidate for early redemptions given its sufficient liquidity, disciplined Indika’s FY25 results softened, driven by weaker coal ASP and lower volumes. The ASP of Kideco fell 12.4%to USD49.9/ton from USD57/ton in FY24, while volume decreased 0.6% yoy to 30.5mt, as sluggishexportdemand (18mt in FY25 vs 20mt in FY24) was partially offset by increased domestic demand (12.8mt in FY25vs 11.1mt in FY24). Indika Resources’ sales volume declined sharply to 0.9mt from 3.8mt. The impact of lowercoal ASP and sales volume was somewhat mitigated by growing non-core revenue which increased 23.3% yoyto USD408.3mn, accounting for 19% of Indika’s total revenue in FY25, increased from 15.4% in FY24.Theimpact was also partly mitigated by lower cash cost (ex. royalty) of coal which decreased 6.4% yoy toUSD33.8/ton amid a lower strip ratio of 5.1x.Including royalty, cash cost dropped 14% yoy to USD43.1/ton, Indika sounded out a cautious tone for FY26 underthe backdrop that the Indonesian government is discussingpolicies to raise coal royalties to boost state revenue from natural resources.That said, Indika guides stable ASP and production in FY26.The company expects ASP of Kideco in FY26 to be USD50.3/ton compared toUSD49.9/ton in FY25, and production volume to be 30.3mt versus 30.5mt in FY25. Indika’s total debt/EBITDA and net debt/EBITDA ratios worsened to 5.1x and 2.8x, compared to 4.1x and 2.4xinDec’24,respectively,given lower EBITDA.Meanwhile,Indika generated operating cash inflow ofUSD84.1mn in FY25, compared to a cash outflow of USD55.2mn in FY24. The improvement was mainly drivenby lower royalty paid to the governmentandlower net working capital. Its cash on hand stood at USD488.2mnas of Dec’25, 7.3% higher than the level in Dec’24.We take comfort from Indika’s proactive liabilitymanagementand diversified funding access.InJun’25,Indika secured a USD375mn 5-year facility(SOFR+1.75%prior to commercial operation date (COD);SOFR+1.65%after COD) to early repay aUSD250mn loan and to finance project Gold Awak Mas.We also take comfort from its disciplined ca