东南亚国家煤炭转型：挑战与经验

东南亚国家煤炭转型：挑战与经验 Presentation by: Dr Tharinya SupasaHead of the Sustainable and Renewable Energy (SRE) DepartmentASEAN Centre for Energy塔琳亚·苏帕萨博⼠东盟能源中⼼可持续和可再⽣能源部⻔主任 Landscape of Coal in Southeast Asia东南亚煤炭现状 Almost all ASEAN Member States—except for the Philippines and Myanmar—have declaredintentions to either phase out coal by a specified year, commence decommissioning of existing CFPP,or commit to no new construction of CFPPs.除菲律宾和缅甸外，几乎所有东盟成员国都宣布了以下 计划：在特定年份前逐步淘汰煤炭、开始退役现有燃煤电厂，或承诺不再新建燃煤电厂。 Coal remains deeply embedded in ASEAN’s energy value chain, with Indonesia asa key regional supplier contributing to 89% of the region coal production. 煤炭在东盟能源价值链中仍占据根深蒂固的地位，印度尼西亚作为该地区关键供应商，贡献了区域煤炭总产量的89%。Coal Production, Import, and Export in ASEAN by 2023Coal Reserves and Years Left of ReserveUtilisationby 2023 At current production levels, ASEAN’s coal reserves could sustain morethan four decades (46 years, up until 2069) of continuedutilisation,slightly lags the net-zero/carbon neutral target years (2050 or 2060). Other Member States depend onimports for power generation, mainlyfrom Indonesia: Cambodia (85%), Philippines (80%), Thailand (65%),Malaysia (58%), and Viet Nam (40%). Coal use in power generation has shown a slight decline recently, conversely, the increase seen in industry and captive coal plants.近期煤炭在发电领域的使用量出现小幅下降，而工业与自备燃煤电厂的用煤量却有所增长。 … but rising captive CFPP capacity reveals hidden growth in coal useCoal Demand by Sector in ASEAN (2005-2023) •Coal in power sector declines assolar PV expands in Vietnam (9.5 → 30.5GWh),andgas starts to replace coal in several countries like Malaysia Using Indonesia as an example, captive coal plants—often excluded fromnational transition plan—continue to expand, driving up overall coalconsumption despite the slowdown in grid-based demand. This trendunderscoresthe urgency to advancedecarbonisationand transition pathwaysfor captive generationas part of ASEAN’s broader coal transition strategy. •Industrial coal use shows an upward trend, highlighting the need forresponsible consumption anddecarbonisationin industrial operations. The CFPPs in the region are relatively young, averaging just 14.3 years. Themajority of CFPPs in Southeast Asia are low-efficiency models.本地区燃煤电厂的平均运行年限较短，仅为14.3年。东南亚大多数燃煤电厂属于低效机型。60 •About 55.7 GW of generating capacityfrom plants operatingfor 10 years or less, •The majority of these operating CFPPs (atleast 61% of total generating capacity in2023)stillutiliseless efficient,subcriticaltechnology. The controversies surrounding the coal phase-down under climate commitment, specificallydebates on energy security and affordability, frequently lead to policy paradoxes.在气候承诺背景下， ASEAN Country Spotlights: Existing CFPP Solutions东盟国别聚焦：现有燃煤电厂的解决方案 Coal Transition in Southeast Asia:Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Strategic Insights from the ASEAN RE Long-Term Roadmap Coal utilisation operations are gradually adopting cleaner practices—pollution control and higherefficiency—rather than deep decarbonisation. Such measures reduce environmental harms;they do not fundamentally lower carbon emissions.煤炭利用业务正逐步转向更清洁的运行方式——包括污染控制与能效提升——但尚未实现深度脱碳。此类措施虽能减轻环境危害，却无法从根本 The largest SC in ASEANPaiton CFPP ComplexIndonesia–4,825 MW First, largest USC in ASEANManjung CFPP Unit 4 & 5Malaysia–2 x 1,000 MW Largest USC in ASEANBatangCFPP Unit 1 & 2Indonesia–2 x 1,000 MW Key Takeaways核心结论 •Coal remains attractive in ASEAN largely due to regulatory and policy factors thatprioritiseenergy security and cost stability. •Coal production and consumption continue to rise despite regional carbonneutrality and CPO commitments.•Lack of transition planning for captive and industrial coal use remains a key gap.•Progress has been made mainly in HELE and co-firing, while broader •Policy inconsistencies and financial barriers (e.g. long-term PPAs, stranded The Future of Coal in ASEAN 东盟煤炭未来展望 ASEAN Member States adopted the new Energy Cooperation Blueprint* last month to advanceregional cooperation on energy transition. One of the top priorities for 2030 is to advance renewableenergy in the power system and share credible energy attributes through the ASEAN Power Grid.东盟成员国于上月通过了新版《能源合作蓝图》*，以推进能源转型领域的区域合作。2030年的首要目标之一是在电力系统中推广可再⽣能源，并通过东盟电网共享可信的能源属性。 2021-2025 Clean Coal Technology(CCT) To better reflect the shift from solely advancing high-efficiency, low-emission coal technologies to a broaderapproach that supports a more responsible and managedcoal transition, theProgrammeArea 3is transformed fromClean Coal Technology (CCT)toClean CoalTransformation(CCTR). As ASEAN progresses in its energy transition and graduallymoves away from coal, the CCTRprogrammeaims toexplore more innovative pathways that aligns with carbon The APAEC 2026-2030 has officially been endorsed at the43rdASEANMinisters on Energy Meeting (AMEM)on 16 October 2025 in Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia《2026-2030年东盟能源合作行动计划》已于2025年10月16日在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的第43届东盟能源部长会议上获得正式批准。 Coal Transition in Southeast Asia: