净零导航：中东冲突与转型融资

Middle East conflict and financing the transition The read-across from the Middle Eastconflict means financial conditions in Together with macroeconomicdeterioration, this affects the We expect new channels of capital tocome from corporate funding where Executive Summary Financial conditions arechangeabledue to the Middle Eastconflict, tightening access to capital and slowing the ability to fundand execute decarbonisation.Traditional funding is stretchedwith Financialconditionswillincreasingly setthepace of transition Geopolitical tensionsin the Middle Eastarealready transmitting through higher energy prices andcreating more volatile and restrictive financial conditions globally. For the net-zero agenda, thatmatters because the transition isincreasinglyfundamentally a financing challenge: when inflationrises, rates stay higher for longer, and risk appetite weakens, the cost and availability of capital fordecarbonisation can deterioratequickly-particularly for capital-intensive technologies and long-datedinfrastructure. Thismeansthattheeconomy-widepace of decarbonisationbecomesconstrained by Current macro conditions The financing gap remainsacentral constraint. Estimates12suggestthe world needs USD3.5trnto USD7.3trn of investment per year by 2050 to deliver net zero, yet BNEF estimates currentannual investment in energy transition and climate technologies at ~USD2.1trn in 2024 (around Investment needs are high… BloombergNewEnergyFinance Debthas historically carried the transition withdebt financing accountingformore than 65% ofnewly raised capital in 2024according to the IMF, but it’s becoming harder to rely on asthe IMFexpectsglobal publicdebt to rise from~92.4% (2024)of GDPto~102.35% by 20303. … and the traditionaldebt-ledmodellooksstrained This reinforcestheincreasing importance of alternative sources of capitalto scale up cleanpower systems and decarbonise industry and transport. Itpoints towardscorporate-led funding We see a continued rotation in how transition capital is raised and deployed. Traditional venturecapital has become more selective as newer themes compete for funding; in the US, 2025 VCinvestment was dominated by AI & machine learning (USD161.4bn) versusclimate tech(USD11.9bn). As some climate technologies mature, financing has also shifted towards publicequity-particularly for batteries and EVs,whichrepresented around 80% of financing last year. Alternate sources of capital-Corporate Venture Capital ◆CVCs invested ~USD230bn in 2025according toPitchbookdata,equating tojust overhalf of total venture capital.We identify 60 corporate venture units actively investing inclimate tech whose parent companies average an ‘A’ credit rating, versus ‘BBB-’ for ◆Global private creditreached ~USD3.5trn at end-2024 (+17% YoY) according to theAlternative Credit Counciland has become meaningfulas apillar of real-economyfunding.In 2024USD592.8bnwasdeployed, an increase of+78% YoY5. With over 90% ofloansasfloating rate, tighter policy and higher market rates can feed through to borrower Private credithas grownfast,is now a meaningful market,buthas transparency issues Fundingconditions are nowakey swing factor in transition.As volatility rises and sovereignbalance sheets remain constrained, we expect a greater share of transition funding to comefromcorporates includingcorporate venture capital (CVC) and private credit, alongside labelleddebt where feasible. Tracking financial conditions-together with transition-specific indicators The pace of decarbonisationwill be increasingly Contents Financial conditions will increasinglyset the pace of transition1 Financial conditions–relevant for Landscape of Climate Finance 20236Key charts Emissions control12Climate technology is make orbreak for the net-zero transition12 Financing the transition19 Climate capital is going corporate19VC funding shifts as companiesget bigger20 Appendix-Our sustainability Appendix 1: More from Global Disclosure appendix34 Disclaimer36 Financial Conditions ◆The objective of this report is to identify how Middle Eastevents ◆Price volatility driven by Middle East events transmits into country,corporate and investoraccess to capital and riskappetite ◆Wefocus on the US andChina, representing 46% of annual CO Financial conditions–relevant for the speed of transition In1985,theglobal population was4.85bn6andworld GDP was USD13trn7in real terms.Then,according to the Energy Institute, the world was producing 9,886 TWh8of electricity, with 63.6%of it coming from fossil fuels,mainly coal, gas and oil(coal 38%, gas 14%,oil 11%). The transition to a net-zero By2024,theglobal population had reached 8.14bn, with global GDP atUSD111trn in realterms,according to theWorldBank. Globalelectricity production had increasedmore thanthreefold to31,256 TWh of electricity,with 58.6%of productioncoming from fossil fuels. At the global level, the decline of fossil fuels as part of the mix is clear, but in the two largestcontrib