净零导航：中东冲突与转型融资

Net-Zero Navigator Middle East conflict and financing the transition The read-across from the Middle Eastconflict means financial conditions inother markets are less predictable Together with macroeconomicdeterioration, this affects theavailability and pace of funding fordecarbonisation activities We expect new channels of capital tocome from corporate funding wherethere is commercial opportunity Executive Summary Financial conditions arechangeabledue to the Middle Eastconflict, tightening access to capital and slowing the ability to fundand execute decarbonisation.Traditional funding is stretchedwithrising public debt, so transition finance is increasingly shiftingtowards corporates with strong balancesheets. We expect newcapital channels tobecome a greater focus such ascorporateventure capital, a cUSD230bnmarketin 2025. Financialconditionswillincreasingly setthepace of transition Geopolitical tensionsin the Middle Eastarealready transmitting through higher energy prices andcreating more volatile and restrictive financial conditions globally. For the net-zero agenda, thatmatters because the transition isincreasinglyfundamentally a financing challenge: when inflationrises, rates stay higher for longer, and risk appetite weakens, the cost and availability of capital fordecarbonisation can deterioratequickly-particularly for capital-intensive technologies and long-datedinfrastructure. Thismeansthattheeconomy-widepace of decarbonisationbecomesconstrained bythe cost and availability of capital, not just policy ambition.In this report, we identifyhowcurrentconditions impactthe ability and speed of countries and corporates to fund decarbonisation, with afocus on the US and China, which together account for 44% of annual CO₂emissions (China 31%,US 13% of CO2emissions of energy, as pertheEnergy Institute). Current macro conditionsimpact the net-zero transition The financing gap remainsacentral constraint. Estimates12suggestthe world needs USD3.5trnto USD7.3trn of investment per year by 2050 to deliver net zero, yet BNEF estimates currentannual investment in energy transition and climate technologies at ~USD2.1trn in 2024 (around2% of global GDP), and~USD1.9trn USD in 2023 (as pertheClimatePolicyInitiative). Investment needs are high… In 2024 investment for transition was around~USD2.1trn,equating to around 2% of global GDP BloombergNewEnergyFinance Debthas historically carried the transition withdebt financing accountingformore than 65% ofnewly raised capital in 2024according to the IMF, but it’s becoming harder to rely on asthe IMFexpectsglobal publicdebt to rise from~92.4% (2024)of GDPto~102.35% by 20303. … and the traditionaldebt-ledmodellooksstrained This reinforcestheincreasing importance of alternative sources of capitalto scale up cleanpower systems and decarbonise industry and transport. Itpoints towardscorporate-led fundingwhere clear commercial opportunity and stronger balance sheetscan move back into focus. We see a continued rotation in how transition capital is raised and deployed. Traditional venturecapital has become more selective as newer themes compete for funding; in the US, 2025 VCinvestment was dominated by AI & machine learning (USD161.4bn) versusclimate tech(USD11.9bn). As some climate technologies mature, financing has also shifted towards publicequity-particularly for batteries and EVs,whichrepresented around 80% of financing last year.However,investor sentiment has softened, with ESGand sustainability-themed equity fundsseeing net withdrawals in 2025of USD31bn4,and climate/carbon/transition-themed fund flowsturning negative earlier in 2024. In this environment,CorporateVentureCapital(CVC)isemerging as a comparatively resilient source of climate tech funding: Alternate sources of capital-Corporate Venture Capitaland Private funding ◆CVCs invested ~USD230bn in 2025according toPitchbookdata,equating tojust overhalf of total venture capital.We identify 60 corporate venture units actively investing inclimate tech whose parent companies average an ‘A’ credit rating, versus ‘BBB-’ forconstituents of the largest clean energy-themed ETF by AUM-an important distinctionwhen financing costs are rising. ◆Global private creditreached ~USD3.5trn at end-2024 (+17% YoY) according to theAlternative Credit Counciland has become meaningfulas apillar of real-economyfunding.In 2024USD592.8bnwasdeployed, an increase of+78% YoY5. With over 90% ofloansasfloating rate, tighter policy and higher market rates can feed through to borrowercosts quickly, reinforcing the sensitivity of transition projects to financial conditions evenwhen funding is sourced outside public markets.In addition,the private credit markets areincreasingly under scrutinyfor transparency on investments, and outflows. Private credithas grownfast,is now a meaningful market,buthas transparency issues Fundingconditions are nowakey swing factor in transition.As volatility rises and sovereignbalance sheets remain constrained, we