维持买入：2025年商业化表现积极，聚焦H-6试验数据

EquitiesBiotechnology Buy:Positive2025commercialization;focuson H-6trialreadout China ◆2025 resultsgenerallyinlinewith market estimate;focuson1L lung cancerOS data MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)173.00169.00SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE140.50+23.1%(as of06 Apr 2026) ◆Extending leadingstatusfrom I/O 2.0 toI/O 2.0+ADC ◆Maintain Buywith higher TPofHKD173(from HKD169) Positive2025sales.Akesoreported2025product sales of RMB3.0bn, +51% yoy,mainlydriven by rapid growth inPD1 2.0 assetsAK112 (PD1/VEGF) and AK104(PD1/CTLA4).Net lossincreased toRMB1.1bn (RMB0.5bn in 2024)driven by anexpandingsales team and R&D input.WethinkAkeso’s domestic top-tieredcommercialization capabilitiesare undervalued bythemarketandweexpect c50%revenuegrowth in 2026e with AK112’sand AK104’s new indication inclusion intotheNational Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), as well asNRDL inclusion foritsimmunologypipeline.In addition,weexpectkey readouts for AK112 in2026,withChinaphaseIIIHARMONi6 (H-6)trialoverall survival (OS),global H-3trialprogression-free survival(PFS),and OS interim data.Akeso’s stockincreased24% YTD (8%HSHCI), as investorsarepositive aboutAkeso’sASCOreadoutandmarket expectationsfor H-6keepincreasing(market expectsHR<0.75).We think Akeso’s valuation isattractivewithitsleading positioninPD1 2.0. However, we thinkover-heated marketsentimentandalreadyhighexpectations for1L lung cancer readoutcould bring moreshare pricevolatility. 2026late-stageassets:ForAK112,we expectChinaphase III(H-6)OS data in1Lsquamousnon-small cell lung cancer (sqNSCLC)and 1Lbiliarytractcancers(BTC),both in 2026, which could determine if AK112isthe nextimmuno-oncology (I/O)2.0blockbuster whichcould have theopportunityto take the place ofthecurrent standardof care (SOC) Keytruda. Intheoverseasmarket, Summit Therapeutics added asqNSCLCcohortin theH-3trialPFS interim analysis in 2Q26,tostart FDAdiscussionsin advance.It will updatethesq cohort final PFS and interim OS in 2H26 andnon-sqcohort final PFS in 1H27(source:company data,Pharmcube). In addition, HARMONiis under NDA review withPrescription Drug User Fee Act(PDUFA) date in Nov 2026for treating 2L EGFRm NSCLC. We also expect more global phase III trials, followingthedomesticphaseIII pace.AK104is under10/2China/global phase III trials withChina new-adjuvantMSI-H colorectal cancer (CRC) and global 1L gastric cancer(GC) recentlyinitiated.Forother late stage assets,we expect 1) AK117 (CD47) toinitiateglobal phase III in 1L head and necksquamous cell carcinoma(HNSCC) in2Q26e,2)AK111 (IL17)to launchinpsoriasis(1H26e) andankylosing spondylitis(AS) in 2H26e, and 3) AK120 (IL4R)to launchinatopic dermatitis (AD)1H27e. Cindy Chai* (Reg. No. S1700523040001)Analyst, China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcindy.x.r.chai@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2005 Linda Shu*, PhD (Reg. No. S1700522120001)Head of China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlinda.y.l.shu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 88983246 Acceleratedearly-stage R&D, leading players to explore I/O 2.0+ ADC.Akesohasdevelopedsixin-house R&D platforms,includingdual-lock TCE, dual-shieldADC,andtissue-smart siRNA.In theADC platform,HER3 and Nectin-4/TROP2 isinphase I and will start phase IIcombowith its PD1 2.0in 2026. We expectAkeso’sleading positionto expandfromI/O 2.0 to I/O 2.0 combo. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Maintain Buy;raiseDCFTP to HKD173. Our TP implies c23% upside;wemaintainBuy. Seepage5-6for valuation,catalysts,and downside risks. Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in theDisclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Akeso Estimate changes. Weraise 2027e revenue. We raise 2027e product revenue driven byAK112’sand AK104’s rapidgrowth,whilewecut 2026-27e collaboration revenue. We raise2026-27e selling expenses to support new drug launches. We raise 2026-27e R&D expensesgiventhe company’s overseasphase III studies. We raise 2026e net loss whilewecut 2027enet profit. We also introduce 2028e estimates in this report. Valuation & risks.We use a DCF model to reflectAkeso’s long-term growth and derive a newTP of HKD173(previously HK169).Our valuation is based on a WACCof 8.4%(previously8.3%)using a risk-free rate of 4.25%, a market risk premium of 4.75%(unchanged)for Chinacompanies listed in Hong Kong, a 1-year historical mean beta of 0.94 (previously 0.9),and aterminal growth rate of 4% (unchanged),as well as a2026e year-end RMB/HKD exchange rateof 1.16 (previously 1.13). Our target priceimplies c23% upside,andwe maintain our Buy rating. Share price catalysts ◆Sales ramp-up and indication approval of AK112 in China in more soli