2026年全球能源和材料展望

Modeling growth, build rates, and resource constraintshelps shed light on the opportunities and risks ahead. Report Global Energy and MaterialsOutlook 2026 Modeling growth, build rates, and resource constraints helps shed lighton the opportunities and risks ahead. By Alasdair Robbie, Grant Dougans, Brian Murphy, Dayle Nel, Kate Ramsey, Peter Meijer,and James Nixon 19min read At a Glance. Three scenarios for 2040, grounded in economic, physical, andengineering realities, help executives identify risks, opportunities, and no-regrets moves.. Bain’s Intersectmodel shows electricity demand and renewables risewhile fossil fuels persist. The world warms 2.1 degrees Celsius to 2.9degrees Celsius by 2100.SM. Supply of gas/liquefied natural gas, nuclear, minerals, and sustainablefuels will depend on region, policy, and cost, with big swings possible.. Understanding local markets, planning for adaptability, and buildingresilience will help companies find opportunities and navigate withconviction in an uncertain future. The fundamentals endure The pastfive years have tested assumptions about global energy and materialsmarkets. Supply chain shocks, a shifting ESG movement, and two wars withsignificant impact on energyflows have heightened uncertainty forexecutives: How fast are markets growing, and how is policy shaping them?Where are demand and margin pools moving? What supply bottlenecks willshape new developments? Where to invest, and when? That uncertainty only reaffirms Bain’s long-standing view of thefundamentals: Energy demand rises with GDP, population growth, andindustrial activity. The system’s ability to meet demand is constrained by thephysical and engineering realities of what can be built, how fast it can be built,and the availability of materials, capital, and energy resources. Policymakersaim to improve standards of living, but lowest cost remains the decidingfactor, making sustained investment more difficult. Those fundamentals mean efforts to solve thedual challenge—the worldneeds more energy even as it transitions to a lower carbon footprint—will beuneven and, in some scenarios, messy. Across industries, the best decisionsabout energy transition pathways and value creation will be based onplausible outcomes that are grounded in market data, physical realities,technology development, and trade dynamics. 2040: Three futures for the transition We maintain three standing global scenarios through 2040, modeled andrefreshed regularly using Intersect, Bain’s proprietary economic modelingcapability. Each scenario describes a realistic and distinct path from today,excluding the still-unfolding effects from the war in Iran.℠ Total energy demand in 2040 and the most pragmatic supply mix that candeliver it offer afirst read on each of these three futures. Beyond that, a closerlook shows what remains consistent across scenarios and where the pathsdiverge, sometimes sharply, shaping where opportunity and risk willconcentrate. Across all three scenarios, industry and buildings account for more than 60%of the total demand through 2040. Primary energy supply continues to grow tomeet this demand under thefirst two scenarios, but it stalls in the low-carbonscale scenario. Perpetuate present dynamics: Fossil supply remains 72% of global energysupply by 2040.•Divergent pathways:Fossil supply declines to 67% by 2040.•Low-carbon scale:Fossil supply falls to 52% by 2040.• In every case, fossil supply remains a significant share of total supply, growingunder the perpetuate present dynamics and divergent pathways scenarios. Itsshare of total supply declines sharply only in the low-carbon scale scenario asa result of greater electrification and higher levels of efficiency. Areas of conviction Our analysisfinds that certain outcomes hold in every scenario: continuedwarming, surging electricity demand, and resilient fossil fuel demand even asrenewables gain share. For executives, these consistencies point to no-regretsmoves that should pay offregardless of which version of the futurematerializes. World warms 2.1 degrees Celsius to 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100.Even in themost coordinated decarbonization scenario, climate impacts are severe and demand that companies allocate capital to resilience strategies. The economicand physical consequences in every case are serious: higher frequency ofextreme heat, peak load stress on transmission and distribution systemsduring those periods, increased water stress, infrastructure exposure, anddamage to human health and quality of life. Electricity demand surges.Under all three scenarios, electricity demandrises 40% to 70% by 2040, and electricity becomes a larger share offinalenergy consumption. System efficiency improves, but total electricity demandstill rises substantially with population and GDP growth. AI and data centers are attracting attention today as a rapidly growing sourceof electricity demand, but they represent only a small portion of total demandgrowth