2026年全球能源展望：世界如何失去1.5°C的目标（英）

Daniel Raimi, Emily Joiner, Bryan Hubbell, Nafisa Lohawala, and Molly Robertson About the Authors Daniel Raimiis a fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF) and the director of theCommunities in the Energy Transition Initiative at RFF. He is also a lecturer at theGerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. In 2017, hepublishedThe Fracking Debate(Columbia University Press), a book that combinesstories from his travels to dozens of oil- and gas-producing regions with a detailedexamination of key policy issues. Emily Joineris a senior research associate at RFF. Joiner obtained her bachelor’sdegrees in sustainability and economics from Arizona State University and a master’sdegree in agricultural and resource economics from the University of Arizona. Bryan Hubbellis a senior fellow at RFF. Hubbell is an expert on the health andenvironmental impacts of air pollution. He served as the national program director forthe Air, Climate, and Energy Research Program in the US Environmental ProtectionAgency’s Office of Research and Development. He notably led the EPA team thatdeveloped the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), atool now used worldwide to evaluate the benefits of clean air. He also led the Risk andBenefits Group, where he was responsible for assessing exposure and risks relatedto criteria air pollutants and performing benefits analyses for major air pollutionregulations. Nafisa Lohawalais a fellow at RFF. She earned a PhD in economics at the University ofMichigan after receiving a BS-MS dual degree in economics with a minor in computerscience and engineering (algorithms) from the Indian Institute of Technology,Kanpur. Lohawala’s research lies at the intersection of industrial organization, energyeconomics, and public finance. Molly Robertsonis an associate fellow at RFF working on topics related to the electricpower sector, including grid decarbonization, electrification, and electricity marketdesign. She has also contributed to RFF’s growing work on equitable communitytransition and environmental justice. She holds a master’s in public policy from theUniversity of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. Acknowledgements We thank Richard Newell, who conceived of this project and led the production of theanalysis for years, and Stu Iler, who initially developed the platform for harmonizingoutlooks. We are also grateful to Laura Cozzi and Davide D’Ambrosio at IEA, NicholasAustin at ExxonMobil, Astrid Nåvik at Equinor, Michael Cohen and Jorge Blazquez atbp, Yu Nagatomi at IEEJ, Julius Walker at OPEC, Matthias Kimmel and Anushka Vermaat Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and Thomas-Olivier Leautier and Marc Henrio atTotalEnergies for providing data and responding to questions in the preparation of thisreport. Emily Joiner led data collection and harmonization. Daniel Raimi and Joiner leddata analysis and drafting of the report, with the exception of Section 3, whose leadauthors were Raimi (3.1 and 3.5), Bryan Hubbell (3.2), Joiner and Molly Robinson (3.3),and Nafisa Lohawala (3.4). About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution inWashington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resourcedecisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF iscommitted to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policysolutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from thoseof other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. Youcan copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must giveappropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made,and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonablemanner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, orbuild upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For moreinformation, visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Highlights The world will exceed 1.5°C of warmingabovepreindustrial levels by 2050. Despite some success inreducing the trajectory of global emissions, achievingthe 2015 Paris Agreement “stretch goal” of 1.5°C is nolonger plausible. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C willbe extremely challenging and requires additionalpolicy effort. Electricity demand is surging. Projections for powerconsumption around the world have been revisedupward in recent years, incorporating rising demandfrom data centers and the electrification of end-usesectors such as transportation. Although these trendsvary across regions, they add up to a rapidlyelectrifyi