2026年投资管理展望

Seizing opportunity with new sources of growth and the elusive search for scale Deloitte Center for Financial Services Table of Contents 2 ETFs surge, hedge funds pivot, and private capitalrepositions as industry lines blur and product models3 Greater investor access to private markets and newproduct innovations will likely be fueled by regulatory6 Product mastery and digital fluency define a new Firms are scaling AI from isolated experiments to Looking forward16 17 Endnotes 19 Contacts •Is active management being rebuilt, repackaged, or both? •How quickly is regulatory change accelerating the reinvention of investment •What skills will define success in the next era of the investment management •As AI matures, can investment firms scale it without losing control? Introduction The investment management industry enters 2026 with a paradox: Profit growthremains elusive, yet the opportunities for differentiation have rarely been greater.Many investors continue to migrate to low-cost vehicles, alternatives (private marketsspecifically) are capturing the next leg of growth, and some leaders are scaling Explore our analysis below on these themes and some important choices availablefor investment management teams through the remainder of this year and into the ETFs surge, hedge funds pivot, and private capitalrepositions as industry lines blur and product The investment management industry is at aninflection point. Continued cost pressures and thecommoditization of long-only actively managed fundsare running headlong into the rapidly acceleratingdevelopment of artificial intelligence as an enablerof either competitive or cost advantage and a For many traditional investment firms, the evolutionof active portfolio management product structurescontinues to accelerate. Actively managed mutualfunds are experiencing steady net outflows, asinvestors increasingly gravitate toward more cost-effective investment options, particularly ETFs.Although passive mutual funds are still attracting netinflows, the momentum has slowed. In contrast, theETF market continues to show robust and consistent in the United States rose—from just 1% in 2014 tomanagement (AUM) for active ETFs have grown26% in 2024—highlighting a growing preferencesignificantly—rising by 68%, from $502 billion tofor investment vehicles that combine professional$843 billion.4A similar trend appears in Europe.active management with the structural benefits ofNet flows into active undertakings for collective ETFs rose by 468 in 2024, bringing the total to 1,600have risen meaningfully, climbing from 2.1% of total source of market friction, as many companiesweigh import substitution strategies and reassesssupply chain configurations.11If this uncertaintydiminishes over the next 12 to 18 months, theresulting clarity on trade costs and pricing islikely to enhance valuation confidence. Greatertransparency in valuations should, in turn, helpaccelerate deal activity, support the normalizationof investor distributions, and ultimately create amore conducive environment for fundraising. Privatecapital also stands to benefit from ongoing policydiscussions in the United Kingdom and United States This substantial growth of active ETFs likely signalsmore than a passing interest; it may reflect astructural realignment in the market as many assetmanagers and investors alike adapt to a new era ofinvestment preferences and innovation. At the sametime, active ETFs will likely also cushion some of themargin pressures brought about by the still-healthy Meanwhile, private capital fundraising hasexperienced a steady decline over the past threeyears. Following a peak in 2021, the total capitalraised by 2024 had decreased by approximatelyone-third.8The number of new fund launchesdeclined even more sharply—by nearly two-thirds— After several years of net outflows, hedge fundsare starting to recover, with steady inflows signalingrenewed investor confidence.15Current conditionsremain favorable for sustained momentum,supported by heightened market uncertainty from large hedge funds are expanding into private credit,aiming to capture growing opportunities in the spacewhile diversifying their business models.16As thistrend accelerates, the distinctions between product Greater investor access to private markets andnew product innovations will likely be fueled by These demand and performance trends arecombining with an evolving regulatory environmentto create new opportunities for investmentmanagement firms. For one, the low ratio of publicto private companies today has many industry In 2026, the expansion of partnerships acrossindustries will likely play an increasingly importantrole for new investment opportunities. Some lifeinsurers have sought to increase their exposureto private markets investments (specifically debt-oriented) to diversify their portfolios and improveinvestment returns, while some alternativeinvestment managers are looking to gain accessto perman