2026-2027年经济展望报告：战争迷雾 (英文版)

Economic outlook 2026-27:The Fog of War 31 March 2026 Content Page 3-4Executive Summary Page 5-11Global outlook: Escalation risks in afragmented world Page 11-14Inflation and central banks: Price shocktriggers reaction Page 15-17Developed markets: Stagflation returning Page 18-20Emerging markets: Triple deficit countries infocus triggers reaction Page 21-22Corporates navigating one crisis afteranother Page 23-32Capital markets outlook: Ultimately afunction of geopolitics SummaryExecutive •The war in the Middle East sets the stage. For the US and Europe, we expectlower growth, higher inflation, stronger fiscal pressure and a challengingsituation for central banks.Global GDP is expected at +2.6% in 2026 (reviseddown by –0.5pp), inflation at 3.2% in the US and 3.0% in the Eurozone this year(revised up by +0.7pp and +1.1pp, respectively) and trade growth at +1.5%in 2026 (revised down –0.5pp). Growth is expected to stay at +2.1% in the USand +0.8% in the Eurozone and deficits will remain elevated: -7% of GDP inthe US and -3.0% in Europe, while higher debt-servicing costs limit room forsupport. Oil prices are expected to hover around 80 USD/bbl at end-2026 after Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer& Chief Economist Jordi Basco CarreraHead of Private Markets Investment jordi.basco_carrera@allianz.com Ana BoataHead of Economic Research Nils BradkeSenior Investment Strategist Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK, US & Francemaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com Lluis Dalmau TaulesEconomist for Africa & Middle Eastt •The Gulf countries (GCC) and Asia remain most directly exposed while Chinashould still grow by +4.6% in 2026.Watch for triple-deficit economies facingrecession risks while some commodity exporters benefit from diversification.Triple-deficit economies, combining fiscal, current account and energy deficits,are particularly vulnerable to capital outflows, higher inflation and recession.GCC economies face trade, tourism and real-estate risks despite high financialbuffers and we have revised their growth forecast by -2.1pps. For Asia, the Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisorguillaume.dejean@allianz-trade.com Bjoern GriesbachHead of Macroeconomic and CapitalMarkets Research Jasmin GröschlSenior Economist for Europe Michael HeilmannSenior Investment Strategistmichael.heilmann@allianz.com •For corporates and consumers: a broad-based cost shock, on top of pre-existing vulnerabilities.Higher energy, metals and fertilizer prices arecreating a cost-push shock amid weak demand and elevated US tariffs,expected to hover around 10%. Energy producers and defense benefit, whileenergy-intensive, transport and consumer sectors face margin pressure. America HernandezSenior Investment Strategist Bernhard HirschHead of Rates and Emerging Markets Alexander HirtHead of Corporate Research Patrick KrizanSenior Investment Strategist •Capital markets: pricing in a geopolitical stagflation scare.Since theoutbreak of the Middle East conflict, investors have shifted decisively intoa stagflationary risk off mode. Yield curves have risen and bear-flattened(front end: +50–90bps; long end: +40–70bps) as markets factor in a short Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Research and 90bps). At the same time, overseas demand appears to be softening asEM central banks draw down FX reserves to stabilize weakening currenciesand finance elevated oil and gas imports. The growth scare is reflected inbroad equity losses (US: –8%; Europe: –10%; EMs: –12%) and a pronouncedflight to the ultimate safe asset: USD (trade weighted +2.5%) cash. Even goldhas retreated (–13%), unwinding its earlier exceptional rally and facing sellingpressure from countries tapping savings to pay for energy. Credit spreads havewidened only modestly (+13bps for Euro IG; +26bps for HY), but broadly in linewith previous geopolitical shocks. Importantly, markets still do not expect astructural regime shift: longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored Maria LatorreSector Advisor, B2Bmaria.latorre@allianz-trade.com Maxime LemerleLead Advisor, Insolvency Research Yao LuInvestment Strategistyao.lu@allianz.com Lina MantheyInvestment Strategist Maddalena MartiniSenior Economist for Italy, Greece, Spain& Beneluxxmaddalena.martini@allianz.com Luca MonetaSenior Economist for Emerging Markets •It could get worse before it gets better: A worsening of the conflict wouldcause a stagflationary recession.Mind the chain reaction. In our downsidescenario, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz (>3 months) wouldmagnify the economic shock, with oil rising temporarily to 180 USD/bbl andgas to 200 €/MWh before easing back to 85 USD/bbl and gas to 65 €/MWhtowards the end of the year, given the demand-side destruction. The globaleconomy would be pushed into a stagflationary regime, with the Eurozonefalling into a technical recession (annual growth at +0.2%) and the US economysignificantly slowing down for two years on second-round effects as a str