生命科学与医疗保健：进入第一季度季的讨论

Life sciences and healthcare Debate into Q1 season Developed Markets ◆Macro andgeopolitical riskscould benefit healthcareoutperformancenear term, with therapeutic more defensive Yifeng Liu*, PhDGlobal Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com ◆Catalyst-driven re-rating remainskey focus for Q1, inconjunction with upcoming medical conference season Rajesh Kumar*Senior Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Bank plcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com ◆Market should see improved visibilitygoing into Q1 2026regarding Medicare Part D impact Morten Herholdt*Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Bank plcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com Defensive bid for Healthcare:With the ongoing uncertainty on prospective ratecuts,geopolitical risks and AI, we have argued thathealthcare could outperform in the near term giventhisuncertainty, but noted that elevated multiples and crowded positioningmight be risksto watch(seeQuarterly:The least naughty child, March 2026).In theboarder healthcare DM space, our preferred play is therapeutics over Tools/MedTechwhich may need H2’26 macro clarity to perform.Going into the Q1 earning seasons,companies may highlight their exposure to theMiddleEast, either in terms of direct Shubhangi Gupta*, PhDGlobal Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBCSecurities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143 Sidharth Sahoo*Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in Bottom-up catalystscontinue to drive re-rating:With2025 more macro/regulatory-driven,we now expectclinical readouts and pipeline to drive dispersion and re-ratings.Going into Q1 earning season, debate may continue to centreonupcoming keycatalysts, in conjunction with upcoming key medical conferences such as ASCO andADA. Ivonescimab’s HARMONi trials (HARMONi-3 and HARMONi-6)data areexpectedas debate continues on Ivonescimab’s Keytruda replacing potential.Wainua’s(AstraZeneca) CARDIO-TTRansform enjoys a relatively optimistic view in the upcomingread out, given the MoA class derisk bytheprevious positive read out and its potentialoptionality to include background stabilisers in the label. On the other hand, expectationon Pelacarsen’s Lp(a) HORIZON trialare becomingincreasingly muted. Risks arealso Yessica Sanchez* Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCyessica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx Damayanti Kerai*Analyst, India HealthcareHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limiteddamayantikerai@hsbc.co.in+91 88 7933 5196 Akshata Agarwal*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-USaffiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is notregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Debates in Life Science Tools:Life science tools stocks remain out of favour with risinginflation worries weighing onmultiplesfor these long duration growth profiles. Managementteams continue to frame growth as “jam tomorrow”.We think medium-term growth visibilityand large-cap acquisition choices remain key concernsforinvestors. Consumables haveheld up through 2025, butwe thinkan instruments recovery is the key catalyst for a re- HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Investment Research at: the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Equities●Life Sciences & Healthcare2 April 2026 Contents Notes to noteKey clinical catalystsShare prices and multiples trends Disclosure appendix 19 Disclaimer Notes to note Global Nine Themes Talking Points: Opportunities in an uncertain world, 31 March 2026 US & Europe AstraZeneca (AZN LN): Buy: COPD asset derisk improves growth visibility, 30 March 2026Waters Corp (WAT US): Buy: Margin upside from execution, 27 March 2026Merck & Co Inc (MRK US): Continuing to plug the Keytruda gap,25March 2026 Asia Summary of pre Q1 call commentaries Summary of pre Q1 call commentaries CompanyTickerDateHSC comment and key observationsMerck KGaAMRK GR25-MarGuidance unchanged: Group sales around-2%; FX impact ~-7% to-3%. No FX revision. Summary of pre Q1 call commentaries CompanyTickerDateHSC comment and key observationsAstraZenecaAZN LN01-AprR&D is expected at the upper end of the low-20s, around ~23% of sales. Summary of pre Q1 call commentaries Key clinical catalysts Key clinical catalysts Share pricesand multiples trends Sector multiples and valuation comparison Pharma multipleshave corrected fromhistoric highs,along with theMedTech/Tools multiples sincethe start of the year. The debate is if the elevated multiples might reduce defensiveness of thetherapeutics names? Longer duration and MedTech names potentially might start factoring in Source: LSEG Datastream, HSBC Source: LSEG Datastream, HS