分析师注：大型IPO可能威胁2026年IPO类别

Mega IPOs Could Threaten2026 IPO Class Institutional Research Group Kyle Stanford, CAIADirector, VC Researchkyle.stanford@pitchbook.com If these companies go public, is there enough liquidity forthe rest of VC? pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on March 18, 2026 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Contents Key takeaways1Potential mega IPOs of 20262What is at stake for the venture market?4Possible scenarios for the market to consider6Outlook10 Key takeaways •SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are rumored to go public in 2026. Should that occur,they would likely be the three largest VC-backed IPOs ever and could conceivablycreate more value than all VC-backed IPOs since 2000 have collectively. This wouldbe a win for VC, a market that has been stranded in a liquidity crunch for severalyears. However, these returns would be relatively concentrated, with large portionsof value being held by corporates and non-VC investors. •2026 has been seen as a year when the IPO market could bounce back. After arise in IPO activity in 2025 and the increase in unicorns going public, 2026 wasexpected to continue that momentum. Currently, only a few companies are inthe registration process, and no major IPOs have been completed in the first twomonths of the year. •SpaceX is reported to be aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, andOpenAI and Anthropic could raise another $50 billion combined, which would beroughly as much as was raised by US VC-backed company IPOs over the pastdecade. With such large sums being raised by just a few listings, the potential lackof capital for less unique offerings should concern VCs. •Companies that completed IPOs in 2025 were met with a lack of enthusiasm,for the most part, post-listing, as many have traded lower since their listing. It isnot uncommon for high-growth tech companies to trade lower through the firstsix months in the public market, but any selling pressure up until a lockup periodexpires for these mega IPOs could induce worry by VC-backed companies, as avolatile market would be less ideal for new listings. •Equity markets already must contend with unclear economic signals, as well as theIran war. Further uncertainty due to poor listings by any of these companies couldcreate a further freeze in VC-backed IPOs and lead to an extension of the weakliquidity climate that GPs and LPs already face. Potential mega IPOs of 2026 If any of the potential IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic are completed in 2026, theywould be the largest US VC-backed tech IPO ever. Meta (previously Facebook) went publicat a valuation of $104 billion. Alibaba holds the record for the largest global tech IPO,at $175 billion. Each of the three companies is currently valued much higher than thosevaluations. SpaceX’s recent merger with xAI created a $1.25 trillion market value, whileOpenAI and Anthropic have been valued at $840 billion and $330 billion, respectively—though soon after this note is published, one or more of those could change. The considerable intrigue for these IPOs not only stems from their individual valuationsbut also from the large number of companies still private and the lack of liquidity the USVC market has endured since 2022. These IPOs would be significant for the market forseveral reasons. With these companies being the base of the AI market, OpenAI’s andAnthropic’s IPOs would further validate the enormous amount of capital flowing into themarket if the listings are strong. All three companies would also add validation to thesecondary markets, of which they have been able to generate a considerable amount ofliquidity already for employees and early investors. More importantly, strong listings couldpull more companies into IPOs, unlocking billions of returns for investors. At least thatis the hope. It is also reasonable to believe that these company listings could add further challenges tomany companies looking to go public this year. VC is currently experiencing an extendedliquidity drought, not only because fewer companies have gone public in the past fouryears compared with 2021 alone, but because M&A activity has been slow and value isaccumulating in late-stage private companies. For many unicorns, that value has becomestagnant, and the returns promised to LPs have not and likely will not be delivered. Theattention that these mega IPOs take from the market could push a broadly open IPOwindow into 2027, which would add another year of stale fundraising for much of themarket and further extend liquidity timelines. Media attention is not the only thing these mega IPOs could absorb. IPO underwritingwould be constrained by the amount these companies are able to raise. US VC-backedIPOs raised a record $62.1 billion in 2021. Alibaba raised a record $22 billion when it waslisted in 2014, and was led by six lead underwriters. SpaceX