分析师注：私募股权对软件清算的敞口

Institutional Research Group Garrett HindsSenior Research Analyst,Private Equity PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on February 17, 2026 Contents Key takeaways •Private equity exposure to software is elevated:Software represented around 18%of US PE deal value in 2025, increasing the asset class’s sensitivity to the current Key takeaways Private equity’s exposure to thesoftware reckoning Public software valuation reset •Public software multiples have compressed:Multiples are down more than onestandard deviation from their eight-year average, driven by AI disruption. IT-focused PE performance5 Takeaways from the public PE firms’recent earnings reports •Structural frictions limit the pace of wholesale AI-driven displacement:Enterprisesecurity, compliance, switching costs, and user retraining suggest evolution rather What gets software out of itshistoric valuation reset? •Periods of relative underperformance in technology-focused PE have historicallycreated attractive deployment windows:This dynamic is particularly relevant when Private equity’s exposure to the software reckoning We examined US private equity’s exposure to the material reset underway in publicsoftware valuations. Software has become one of the core sectors within US buyouts.Over the past decade, it has represented approximately 14% of total PE deal valueand 11% of total PE deal count. In 2025, that exposure increased meaningfully, with In other words, at the very moment that public valuations are resetting, private equity’scapital concentration in software is elevated. Conversations with industry participantsmake clear that both AI-driven opportunity—through greater efficiency and enhancedproduct value—and AI-related disruption risk have been central to underwriting Yet focusing only on disruption risk overlooks the structural strengths embeddedin many software businesses. A software company is more than its code. Free,open-source alternatives have long existed and, in many cases, offer comparable Incumbent platforms also benefit from deep organizational integration. Users aretrained on and efficient within existing systems. Migrating to a new platform, whetheropen-source or AI-native, requires retraining employees, converting historical data, With many public software names trading near five-year lows, markets appear tobe pricing in an aggressive disruption scenario. For private equity investors, thisenvironment may represent opportunity rather than existential threat. Firms willing Public software valuation reset For much of the past decade, software was viewed as the ideal private equity asset.Recurring revenue, pricing power, approximately 70% gross margins, and the potentialfor 30% operating margins at scale created a compelling financial profile. The capital- Software valuations surged in 2020 and 2021 amid aggressive monetary sti mulusand rising inflation. Many investors came to view the sector as structural ly resilient,even as a potential inflation hedge. Empirically, valuations displayed a clear inverserelationship with US five-year Treasury rates. As rates declined, multiples expanded; That relationship has since broken down. Despite rates moving modestly lower,public software multiples recently fell to more than one standard deviation (SD)below their eight-year average. AI disruption risk is clearly the primary driver of the Amid this debate, it is important to recognize the psychological dimension. Investorsin 2024 and 2025 were still anchoring expectations to the extraordinary conditionsof 2020 and 2021. Anchoring is a well-documented cognitive bias: When exposed to Peak-era valuations became an implicit benchmark, making recent multiplesfeel like an attractive buying opportunity with the prospect of further rate cuts Net net, the risks in IT-focused private equity reflect uncertainty around AI andits implications for the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model itself. Investors arequestioning whether traditional application layers can be commoditized, whether AI- History, however, suggests caution before declaring disruption fatal. Markets oftenoverestimate the near-term impact of transformative technologies. Autonomousdriving was once expected to cripple incumbent automakers and ride-hailing investing in the same technology that investors once presumed would displace them.Technological shifts rarely eliminate established players overnight. More often, they In software, two barriers deserve attention: enterprise security and user retraining.Large enterprises, particularly in regulated industries, can take quarters or even a yearto approve new software. Security reviews, data governance, and integration testing AI may increase that friction. Leaders must evaluate not only functionality but alsomodel risk, data exposure, and embedde