2026年低收入国家的宏观经济发展与前景

MACROECONOMICDEVELOPMENTSANDPROSPECTSIN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES–2026 March2026 IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options forreform,orreviewingexistingIMFpoliciesandoperations.Thefollowingdocumentshavebeen released and are included in this package: •APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsMarch 18, 2026, consideration of the staff report. •TheStaffReport,preparedby IMFstaffandcompletedonFebruary18,2026,fortheExecutiveBoard’sconsiderationonMarch18,2026. •AStaff Supplement.Readers who are interested in the impact of the war in theMiddle East on Low-Income Countries’ economies should refer to thissupplementthat reports on thesedevelopments and informationthatbecameavailableafter thereport was issued to the Board on February 19, 2026. TheIMF’stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. ElectroniccopiesofIMFPolicyPapersare available to the public fromhttp://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx InternationalMonetaryFundWashington, D.C. Press Release – Macroeconomic Developments and Prospectsin Low-Income Countries—2026 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – March 31, 2026:On March 18, 2026, the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) discussed the IMF staff paper on MacroeconomicDevelopments and Prospects in Low-income Countries (LICs). The paper defines LICs as the70 countries eligible for the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust facilities.1 LICs are navigating a fluid global environment marked by high uncertainty and shifting policiesin major economies spanning trade, migration, digital finance, and spending priorities,including national security and foreign aid. The spillovers of the ongoing conflict in the MiddleEast adds to the pressures, although the actual impact will depend on the duration of theconflict and breadth of disruptions. While internal and external imbalances have been narrowing in recent years, macroeconomicoutcomes remain highly divergent across LICs. GDP growth averaged 4.8 percent in 2025, butremained highly heterogenous across LICs. Some LICs are among the world’s fastest growingeconomies, while others grow insufficiently to boost per capita income. Inflation continues toease but hotspots remain. Fiscal consolidation has supported modest reductions in publicdebt, yet debt vulnerabilities remain high, and the significant increase in domestic borrowing israising new concerns. Many LICs with thin foreign exchange reserves remain vulnerable tochanges in commodity prices, global interest rates, and further aid cuts. Divergence acrossLICs is expected to persist over the medium term amid elevated global and domestic risks. External financing to LICs is undergoing major shifts. After peaking during 2010-14, netfinancial inflows to LICs have fallen by about one third amid declines in FDI equity flows andexternal debt. New public sector borrowing from the private sector has been contracted athigher interest rates and shorter maturities, while official creditors have adjusted terms moregradually, preserving grant element for the poorest LICs. Official Development Assistanceflows have declined in recent years to 4.3 percent of LIC GDP, from an average of 5 percentduring 2010-14, and are projected to continue falling, alongside shifts from grants to loans andfrom budget support to project financing. While remittance inflows to LICs have beenincreasing, ongoing changes in immigration policies globally pose risks to remittance flows. The report also highlights that stronger fiscal discipline and fiscal institutions, particularlyrevenue administration and public financial management, are associated with higher ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) inflows in LICs, with the effects that are stronger in LICs than inemerging markets and amplified in high-uncertainty settings. Stronger fiscal institutions arealso linked to higher quality FDI, proxied by R&D intensity. When fiscal discipline, fiscalinstitutions, and broader institutional settings are considered jointly, fiscal institutions emerge as a more important institutional correlate of FDI to LICs. Meanwhile, commonly used fiscalincentives such as tax reductions or special economic zones appear to attract FDI only wherefiscal discipline and institutions are strong. Navigating global uncertainties and external financing shifts calls for resolute domestic policiesand reforms and adequate support from international partners. Domestic policy and reformefforts will be critical to increase returns on capital and attract stronger FDI inflows. Given theirscarcity, concessional resources should be more strongly prioritized toward poorer and fragileLICs. Targeted capacity development and enhanced coordination between LIC authorities anddevelopment partners would boost reform implementation and help reduce borrowing costs.The IMF has a strong r