2025年收益超出预期；市场份额进一步扩大

Market share further expanded 2025 earnings beat expectations; Market share Target PriceHK$14.70(Previous TPHK$13.40)Up/Downside61.9%Current PriceHK$9.08 J&T’s adjusted after tax profit(excluding fair value change of financial liabilitiesand share-based expense)surged112% YoY to US$425mnin 2025, which is22%/16% above our/Bloomberg consensus. This implies adjusted profit ofUS$272mn in 2H25 (+151% YoY).It isworth notingthat Newmarket‘s adjustedEBIT turned positive in 2025.The strong results enhanced our confidenceinJ&T’s global growth story. We revise up our 2026E/27E earnings forecastsby5%/9%, due largely to higher parcel volume in SEA and higher overallunit China Logistics margin.OurSOTP-basedTPis revised up to HK$14.7 (fromHK$13.4).MaintainBUYaswecontinue to like J&T’s(1) unmatched competitive edge and marketshare gain potential in SEA (34.4% in2025, +5.8pptsYoY), and (2)large Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Shareholding Structure Related reports:J&T Express (BUY)–Share-swap with SF tohelp expand new markets–15 Jan2026 (link) J&T Express (BUY)–Takeaways fromBangkok investor call–12 Dec 2025 (link) J&T Express (BUY)–Parcel growth inSEA further accelerated in 3Q25–14 Oct2025 (link) J&T Express (BUY)–1H25 profit a mixedbag but growth story well intact–1 Sep2025 (link) Valuation Weapply different EV/EBITDA multiples for different markets to better reflect theirrespective growth outlook.Werevise upour SOTP-based TPtoHK$14.7. SEA:Weassignatarget multipleof14x, which is~80% premium over the globalintegrated logistics operators. Ourlarger targetpremium is to reflect J&T’sstrong China:Weassign atargetmultiple of 6.5x,in line with the major peers.We expectthe “anti-involution” campaign will lend support to the valuation. New markets.Weassign a targetmultipleunchanged at 20x.Our valuationpremium is to reflect the strong growth potential in the Latin America and the Middle Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification Theresearch analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that withrespect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirmsthat neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4)have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a whollyownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as anoffer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyonemaking use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their own risk. The information and contents contained in this report are based on the analyses and interpretations of information believed to be publicly available and reliable.C