中低收入国家屋顶太阳能的潜力（英）

ROOFTOP SOLAR ENERGYPOTENTIALIN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES © 2026The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank orthe governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes andother information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the viewsexpressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encouragesdissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, fornoncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Kulkarni, Nikita S.2026.Rooftop Solar EnergyPotentialin Low-and Middle-Income Countries. City Climate Finance Gap Fund Technical Note. ©World Bank.” Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. RooftopSolarEnergyPotentialinLow-andMiddle-IncomeCountries1 Overview Thisnoteservesasafoundationalresourcetoexplorethedynamicsandpotentialofaddressingurbanchallengesinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(L&MICs)throughtheadoptionofrooftopsolarPV.Itoutlinesthecriticaldecision-makingfactorsnecessaryforunderstandingthecontextsinwhichrooftopsolarismosteffective,includingvarioususecases,businessmodels,fundingmechanisms,andpolicyconsiderations.Additionally,itprovidesacompilationoftoolsthatcanassistinassessingrooftoppotentialandguideimplementationstrategies.Thisnotedoesnotaimtobeastep-by-steptechnicalguidetosolarprojectimplementation.2Rather,itsprimaryobjectiveisto assist governments,utilities,policymakers,and urban planners in comprehensivelyconsideringthepotentialandincreasingdemandforrooftopsolarPV,therebyfacilitatinginformeddecision-makinginthetransitiontosustainableurbanenergysolutions. Thenoteisstructuredintofivesections: 1.Introduction:Solarenergyasalow-costresource2.Rooftopsolarenergy:Benefitsandlimitations3.Specificusecasesforlowandmiddle-incomecountries4.Policyincentivesandbusinessmodels5.Toolstohelpevaluaterooftopsolarpotential 1.Introduction Withthegrowingmigrationtourbanareas,thedemandforenergyisalsoincreasing.Globally,citiesaccountforaround75percentofglobalenergyconsumptionand70percentofglobalgreenhousegasemissions–figuresthataresettorise(InternationalEnergyAgency,2024).Buildingsareresponsiblefor60percentofemissionsonaverage,andupto80percentinsomecities(C40Cities,2024),andtheyaccountfornearly40percentofglobalenergy-relatedemissions(OECD,2022). Hencedecarbonizingbuildingenergyuseisamongthehighestimpactactionsthatcitiescantakeindecarbonizingtheirenergysector.Thishighlightsthesignificantopportunitytoequipbuildingswithrenewableenergygenerationsystemssuchassolarphotovoltaics(PV). SolarradiationisanaturallyabundantresourceavailableeverywhereonEarth,withitsintensityvaryingbylocationandtimeofyear.Utilizingsolarenergyforpowergenerationpresentsanopportunityforcitiestotransformordeveloptheirenergyinfrastructureandadvancetheirlow-carbonenergytransition.Rooftopsolarphotovoltaictechnologyoffersasustainablealternativetofossilfuels;deployingunderutilizedrooftopspacetogenerateelectricitycanreduceenergycostsandgeneratefinancialreturnstogovernments,individualhomeownersorlargeindustrialandcommercialbusinesseswhilehelpingtoreducegreenhousegasemissionsandimproveairqualityinacost-efficientway. BOX 1.1: Potential electricity production of a single solar panel Toestimatethepotentialelectricityproductionofasinglesolarpanel,let'sconsidera300-wattpanelthatreceivesanaverageof5hoursofdirectsunlighteachday.Wecancalculateitsdailyoutputwiththeformula:DailyOutput(kWh)=PanelWattage(W)×SunlightHoursperDay×PanelEfficiency.Forexample,300(W)×5(HoursperDay)×0.2=0.3kWh/day.Thismeansthepanelgenerates0.3kWhofelectricityeachday,totaling9kWhmonthly.Giventhis,tomeettheaveragemonthlyenergyconsumptionof40kWhperpersoninlow-incomeareasofsub-SaharanAfrica(accordingto2014WorldBankdata),atleast