参与中低收入国家的养老金计划（英）

11105 Participation in Pension Programsin Low- and Middle-Income Countries John GilesClément JoubertTomoaki Tanaka Development EconomicsDevelopment Research GroupApril 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11105 Abstract Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly butstagnation of growth in participation in pension programs,due to widespread informal employment, presents a majorfiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design ofpension program rules can encourage more pension contri-butions, while others push for universal non-contributorypensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literatureon the determinants of active participation in pension sys-tems in high- informality settings. An emerging body ofevidence shows that participation responds significantly tofinancial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strat-egies to cover longevity risk, including support through thefamily, which will remain crucial for many older people infiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makersshould integrate the design of contributory pensions, socialpensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderlysupport and consider how all three interact. To informsuch efforts, these interactions must be more systematicallyinvestigated, and the empirical evidence must be expandedbeyond a small number of middle-income countries. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. ParticipationinPensionProgramsinLowandMiddleIncomeCountries JohnGiles* Cl´ementJoubert† TomoakiTanaka‡ 1Introduction Concerns abound that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are becoming “old be-fore they are rich.”1People born in these countries in 2000 will witness a sharp increase inthe old age dependency ratio2from 8% to 30% by age 70.3The decline in multi-generationhouseholds, coupled with widespread financial exclusion (Allen et al., 2016) and low fi-nancial literacy (Klapper and Lusardi, 2020) highlights the need for pension programs tofacilitate retirement and well-being at older ages. Countries must develop formal mecha-nisms to cope before the old-age dependency ratios rise sharply. Since the turn of the millennium, encouraged by robust growth rates and rising aspi-rations for universal social protection,4many LMICs have rapidly expanded social (aka“non-contributory”) pension programs (Holzmann et al., eds, 2009, Rofman et al., 2015).These schemes, financed through general tax revenue, grant pension benefits to the el-derly who have made few contributions to a government-sponsored scheme. They havesharply reduced the number of elderly people without a pension,5but benefit levels areoften low due to fiscal constraints (Bloom and McKinnon, 2014). At the same time, growthin the proportion of workers contributing to social security schemes has stagnated due towidespread unregistered, or “informal”, work. Figure 1 shows the large gap that now ex-ists between pension coverage defined in terms of beneficiaries versus coverage in termsof contributors. With a growing elderly population, social pension benefits will need toreduce either their coverage or the level of benefits provided, lest they become fiscallyunsustainable. A central question arises as to whether participation in contributory schemes can be increased to alleviate the looming fiscal burden. Demographers note that in many LMICs,declining fertility frees up household disposable income (Mason and Lee, 2006), but theseresources are not being channeled into pension programs. As LMICs have a limited ca-pacity to enforce labor regulation (Almeida and Carneiro, 2012), pension program par-ticipation is alwaysde factovoluntary, regardless ofde jureobligations.6The design andimplementation of pension systems could thus be crucial for promoting or hindering par-ticipation. For example, generous social pensions could, in theory, “cannibalize” contrib-utory pension programs when workers are able to evade contributions and still obtainbenefits (Levy and Schady, 2013). The willingness to contribute to formal pension programs depends on the other meansof support available to households. Section 2 considers how these alternative strategieshave evolved with economic development and in response to the introduction of formalpension programs. Where older people were t