澳大利亚2035年国家气候计划：经济确定性和全球可信度的稳健气候目标（英）

September 2025 Foreword Australia’s next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will help shape thedirection of the country’s economy and climate response for the next decade. Ascience-aligned 2035 target—consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C—is not onlyessential to meet Australia’s global commitments and enhance its credibility on theinternational stage in the run up to COP31, but also presents a powerful opportunityto drive economic transformation, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and positionAustralia as a clean energy leader. With world-class renewable resources, a strong industrial base, and deep expertise ininnovation, Australia has everything it needs to prosper in a low-carbon world. Butrealizing this potential requires clear ambition from government matched by practical,economy-wide measures to unlock private investment and guide a fair and inclusivetransition. Better Futures Australia, We Mean Business Coalition and the Business Council forSustainable Development Australia are committed to supporting the delivery of anAustralian 2035 NDC that is ambitious, achievable, and aligned with science. Webelieve this target and the policies put in place to deliver it can be a cornerstone forlong-term prosperity—creating jobs, accelerating clean technology, and ensuringAustralia remains a trusted partner in global markets. This document sets out to inform and inspire the decisions needed to secure a thriving,climate-resilient future for all Australians. ExecutiveSummary Australia’s next NDC can help to power economic growth and advance the nation’sindustrial competitiveness. A science-aligned target backed by a clear and coherentNet Zero Plan is needed to provide the economic certainty businesses need to plan,invest, and compete in global markets. Australia has legislated its 2030 target of a 43% reduction on 2005 levels and is ontrack to deliver it. Looking ahead, recent modelling studies show that an ambitious2035 target of at least 75% below 2005 levels is both achievable and cost-effective.Such a target would align Australia with a 1.5°C pathway, create economic benefits,avoid stranded assets, and mitigate the economic risks of dependence on fossil fuelimports, while building resilience to climate impacts such as bushfires and droughts thatalready pose a serious threat to Australian businesses. For businesses, the value of a robust 2035 target lies in predictability. It provides aclear signal for capital allocation, workforce planning, and infrastructure investment.This certainty will help attract low-cost finance, strengthen supply chain resilience, andposition Australia as a trusted partner in global trade. Headline ambition, however, is not enough. The NDC must be supported by cleardelivery mechanisms and accountability structures. Priority actions include: ●Sectoral pathways for electricity, industry, transport, buildings, and land use.●Financing tools such as a blended finance platform and climate-related disclosurerequirements.●Governance mechanisms including economy-wide carbon budgets, progresscheckpoints, and a national climate investment council.●Guardrails for integrity in carbon markets, ensuring Article 6 credits are additional,capped, and of high quality.●Just transition measures to support regional economies, First Nations participation,and workforce transition. A credible 2035 NDC, paired with these policies, would enhance Australia’scompetitiveness, accelerate clean technology deployment, and strengthen its globalreputation. Business is already moving in this direction; what is needed now is clearnational ambition and a stable policy framework to match. Introduction Climate change poses a serious threat to Australian businesses. Extreme weathereventssuch as droughts, bushfires, and floods are already disrupting supply chains,damaging infrastructure, and driving up insurance and financing costs. Beyondthese direct impacts, global markets are shifting. Investors, trading partners, andregulatorsincreasinglyexpect robust climate strategies and are embedding theminto trade, investment, and procurement decisions. Businesses that fail toadapt facenot only higher costs and greater exposure to risk, but also a loss of competitivenessin international markets. Australia’s high reliance on fossil fuels is a major economic risk. Continued dependenceon coal and gas exports leaves Australia vulnerable to rapid changes in global energydemand as trading partners increasingly seek clean energy alternatives. Companiestied to fossil fuel exports face growing transition risks, from stranded assets to reducedaccess to capital as banks and investors tighten their portfolios. Without a clearnational strategy to diversify the economy and support new industries, Australiarisksfalling behind competitors who are already positioning themselves in low-carbonsectors. Most Australian businesses want theGovernment to take action to mitigatethese risks.In a 2025 poll of businessexecutives,77%