黎巴嫩：技术援助报告政府人员支出：中期支出范围界定（英）

LEBANON Government Personnel Spending: Scoping aMedium-Term Spending Envelope March 2026 Prepared ByNick Carroll and Huy Nguyen Authoring Department: The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of the Lebanon Ministry of Finance (the "CD recipient") in response totheir request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, thisdocument (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF ExecutiveDirector for Lebanon, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to otheragencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and othertechnical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest (seeStaff Operational Guidance on theDissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole orin part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bankstaff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interests shall require the explicitconsent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs department. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of Fiscal AffairsDepartment. Contents A. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................9B. Background and Issues ..........................................................................................................................10 A. Developing an Illustrative Baseline.........................................................................................................17B. Alternative Scenarios for Personnel Spending.......................................................................................20C. Policy Directions .....................................................................................................................................23D. Next Steps ..............................................................................................................................................26 Box 1. Three Case Studies of Regular Wage Setting: UK and Ireland, Denmark and Romania ......................25 Figures 1. Composition of Current Primary Government Spending, 2024 ..............................................................102. General Government Spending and Revenues......................................................................................113. Recent Trends in Public Compensation for Employees .........................................................................124. International Comparisons of Government Salaries and Benefits Spending to GDP.............................145. Structure of Compensation in 2024 ........................................................................................................166. A Baseline Scenario for Personnel Spending.........................................................................................187. Summary of Spending Pressures, Savings and Economic Policy Choices............................................21 Tables Executive Summary Table. Government Personnel Spending (Illustrative Baseline), Billions of US$ ........81. Personnel Spending Estimates, 2019-2025, in Billions of LBP ..............................................................132. Estimated Employment and Compensation, 2025, in Billions of LBP (for Spending Data)....................153: Assumptions and Results for the Baseline Scenario ..............................................................................184. An Illustrative Baseline Scenario of Personnel Spending, in Billions of LBP, 2019 (Real).....................195. Summary of Alternative Scenarios, Difference in Personnel Spending from Baseline (in Percent ofGDP) ...........................................................................................................................................................226. Baseline Personnel Spending in Billions of LBP Nominal Terms ...........................................................287. Baseline Personnel Spending in Billion US$ ..........................................................................................28 Annexes Acronyms and Abbreviations BdLBanque du LibanCDCapacity DevelopmentCOLACost of Living AdjustmentCPIConsumer Price IndexCSBCivil Service BoardEOSIEnd of Service IndemnityFADFiscal Affairs Department(IMF)GDPGross Domestic ProductHRMISHuman Resource Management Information SystemILOInternational Labour OrganizationIMFInternational Monetary FundLBPLVALebanese PoundLatest Value AvailableMEHEMinistry of Education and Higher EducationMoFMinistry of FinanceMTBFMedium-Term Budget FrameworkOECDOrganization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentPEPersonnel Expendit