宏观周报：上游持续分化，中游盈利承压

中观总览 上游：上游原材料价格分化明显。受地缘冲突影响，国际原油高位震荡。化工类商品先扬后抑，甲醇、乙二醇上涨；黑色类价格温和上涨，钢价偏强运行；农产品类上涨，大豆、豆粕等品种走强。有色金属价格小幅上行。 中游：中游盈利承压。装备制造业受益于设备更新政策，开工率稳中有升，利润改善；汽车制造业成本压力加大；电机设备制造业成本、盈利小幅回落；纺织服装、服饰生产成本、盈利回落；化学制造业开工回落。 下游：下游消费分化。部分食品饮料、家电企业近期上调产品价格。从需求端看，必选消费韧性较强，粮油、肉制品等销量平稳；可选消费延续分化，新能源汽车、智能家电受益于政策提振，销售保持增长，而传统大家电、部分家居品类增速回落。地产方面，一、二线城市新房销售小幅改善。 细分行业 大农业：棕榈油、玉米价格小幅震荡，棉花价格小幅上行。 能源：原油价格高位震荡，价格较上期同比小幅回落。液化天然气价格回升。 采矿业：有色价格方面锌、铜、镍价格小幅回升。有色库存方面铜持续下行，铝和铅上行；黑色价格方面集体小幅上行。黑色库存方面螺纹钢维持回落，炼焦煤持续上行。 化工：甲醇、乙二醇价格上行，其余化工品震荡；尿素、PVC、纯苯库存回落。 基建：混凝土、水泥价格上行；混凝土产能利用率上行，水泥供给上行。 地产：本期重点监控城市中，上海、深圳、广州、杭州、成都、西安新房销售量回升。整体销售价格小幅回升。 物流运输：国内、国际航班班次持续回落。欧洲航线指数上行。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突。 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................124.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................134.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差......................................................