宏观周报：上游持续分化，中游回落

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料行业继续分化。原油受美伊临时停火影响高位回落，但仍处高位；动力煤小幅回升，焦炭开启第二轮提涨；钢铁延续供需双弱，钢价震荡走弱；有色金属中铜、铝因中东供给扰动价格回升；化工品中硫酸、MDI等涨幅靠前，但PVC等因需求疲软下跌。 中游：本周中游制造业开工普遍回落。黑色方面，高炉开工率微升但粗钢产量下行；化工方面，聚酯开工持续低位，涤纶长丝、PX开工率均小幅下滑；汽车制造方面，半钢胎和全钢胎均有所回落；基建方面，道路沥青开工持续回落；农业方面，生猪制品开工近期持稳。 下游：本周下游消费整体延续弱复苏。房地产新房成交环比回落，二手房成交同比保持正增长；新能源汽车出口持续上行；消费电子受存储芯片涨价影响，手机、PC等终端产品陆续提价；清明假期服务消费回暖，出游人次同比增长。 细分行业 大农业：玉米、棉花价格小幅回升，棕榈油价格回落；苹果、棉花持续去库。 能源：国际原油价格回落，液化天然气价格小幅回升。 采矿业：有色价格方面，锌、铜和铅回升。有色库存方面，铜、铝和铅回落；黑色价格方面，纯碱、螺纹和热卷小幅回落。黑色库存方面，双焦回落。 化工：甲醇和聚乙烯价格回升，苯乙烯和PTA价格回落；对二甲苯、尿素持续去库。 基建：混凝土价格小幅回升，水泥价格小幅回落；混凝土产能利用率持续上行，水泥供给持续上行。 地产：本期重点监控城市中，上海、杭州、厦门新房销售有回升；北京、南京、广州、合肥新房销售回落。 物流运输：美西航线指数、欧洲航线指数回升。国内航班班次回落，国际航班班次回升。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突。 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差..................