碎片化世界中的全球经济治理

How Geopolitics Shapes International Cooperation Global EconomicGovernance How Geopolitics Shapes International Cooperation At a Glance Chapter1:WhyInstitutionsStillMatter ›International cooperationcontinues to be both necessary and possible to achieve,despite great power rivalry, nationalism, and the erosion of multilateral institutions. ›Regional and globalhierarchies matter:the steeper the power asymmetry, thestronger the temptation for hegemonic domination; flatter hierarchies foster coopera- ›Secondary states (especially liberal middle powers) play a pivotal role in thelegitimacyandeffectivenessof international orders, as they can enable or withhold followership Effective multilateralism depends onstrengtheninginstitutionaloutput,and deepen- Chapter2:AWTOwithouttheUnitedStates? ›TheWTO’scurrentcrisis is primarily driven by US unilateralism and a paralysis of the dispute settlement system, compounded by rigid consensus-based decision-making. ›A US withdrawal from the WTO is possible but unlikely, as it would underminecoreUSeconomic interestswhile strengthening China’s relative influence. ›The gridlock has led members to pursuebilateralandplurilateralarrangements,which may provide temporary stability but cannot replace the WTO as the central pillarof global trade governance. TheWTOiswoundedbutnotdying; ›it is widely acknowledged that meaningful reformis needed, yet effective leadership to drive such reform remains elusive, especially in theabsence of consistent US commitment. Chapter 3: The Role of G20 in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation ›Since the global financial crisis of 2008, theG20’s agenda has become far more diverse.Today, the G20 addresses almost every global policy area. However, resolutions often ›Nevertheless, the G20 continues to be anindispensableformatforglobalgovernance,particularly as a “reserve mechanism” for global crises and as a forum for dialogue with- ›In order to secure its legitimacy, theG20mustfocusonitscoremandate,develop theTroika into a multi-year planning body and align its working methods more closely with Chapter 4: The Rise of BRICS ›BRICS is using institutions such as the New Development Bank, BRICS Pay, and Joint SOEventures to buildparallelinfrastructures that reduce dependence on Western markets The rapid expansion of BRICSreflects its appeal to emerging economies that seekstrategic autonomy, multi-alignment, and protection from coercive trade and investment ›China dominates BRICS’ agenda-settingand operational capacity, using the bloc tosecure resources, technology pathways, and supply chains, while Russia’s role adds geo- ›The rise of BRICSconfrontstheEUwithstructuralchallenges,whose regulatory mod-els, reliance on private multinationals, and FTA-based strategies are poorly adapted to Table of Contents 7—IntroductionChapter 1 9—WhyInstitutionsStillMatterby Christian E. RieckChapter 221—AWTOwithouttheUnited States?Possible But Unlikelyby Keith M. Rockwell Introduction “The world of great powers is the new reality.” Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 22 January 2026 The global rules-based order is undergoing its most significant stress test since the end of theSecond World War. Multilateral institutions have long been criticised, either for their inactionor for failing to adequately represent developing countries. Take the debate about the need to Yet the global governance crises has continued to worsen in recent years. First, Russia’s warof aggression against Ukraine exposed divisions within the international community. Then,under Donald Trump’s leadership, the United States started to adopt rule-breaking and eco- The long-term impact of these current geopolitical dynamics for global governance remain tobe seen. But just as it has not been entirely dialogue-based, cooperative or rules-based untilnow, it will not suddenly become completely anarchic, unilateral or imperialistic either. What is Through this compilation, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung seeks to contribute to ongoing dis-course surrounding the future of global governance within the realms of economic and tradepolicy. The focus is on the institutions via which global governance is exercised. In the first Each subsequent chapter focuses on a specific institution: the WTO, the G20, and the BRICS.Keith M. Rockwell begins by addressing the question of what the future holds for the WTO, andwhether the US could abandon this organisation. In doing so, he also illustrates how some of Gunter Rieck Moncayo and Nikolaus Rischbieter analyse why the G20 is ineffective and suggestways in which this forum could regain its effectiveness, and thus its legitimacy. In their view,despite all the challenges, the G20 remains an indispensable format for global governance. Chapter 1 WhyInstitutionsStillMatter by Christian E. Rieck The world order seems to be quickly reverting to a concert of great powers, an oligopoly ofcompeting global hegemons focuse