揭秘碎片化世界中的贸易模式（英）

Demystifying TradePatterns In A FragmentingWorld Tatjana Schulze and Weining Xin WP/25/129 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025JUN IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting WorldPrepared by Tatjana Schulze (APD) and Weining Xin (APD)* Authorized for distribution by Paulo Medas (APD)June2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:So-called “connector” countries have been argued to benefit from the US-China trade tensions,given their rising share in US imports. This paper draws an important distinction between trade reallocation—countries increase domestic production to substitute for declining Chinese exports to the US—and tradererouting—countries serve as one-stop place for transshipment of Chinese exports to the US. Leveraginggranular data on trade and FDI flows and global input-output linkages, focusing on six Asian countries, we firstdocument that the connector role of these countries may reflect their growing domestic markets and Chinesesupply chain reconfiguration, beyond trade rerouting from China to the US. We then zoom in on value-addedcomponents and deploy a synthetic control approach to disentangle trade reallocation from trade rerouting.While the evidence remains elusive for five of the six countries, Vietnam appears to have benefited from tradereallocation, with increased domestic content in its exports to the US in strategic sectors, instead of facilitatingsignificant transshipment of Chinese exports to the US. Such domestic production expansion also helpedincrease domestic content in Vietnam’s exports to the rest of the world, and may be partly due to Chinese firmsrelocating to Vietnam through greenfield FDI. Despite potential short-term gains, trade reallocation increasesconnector countries’ vulnerability to geoeconomic fragmentation with losses to all countries in the long run. RECOMMENDED CITATION:[ Start Typing Here] Demystifying Trade Patterns In AFragmenting World Prepared by Tatjana Schulze and Weining Xin1 Contents Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................2Stylized Facts ......................................................................................................................................................7Data and Methodology........................................................................................................................................11Empirical Results ................................................................................................................................................14Has there been trade reallocation? ................................................................................................................15Has there been trade rerouting? ....................................................................................................................18The case of Vietnam......................................................................................................................................21Discussions.....................................................................................................................................................25Conclusion...........................................................................................................................................................27References ...........................................................................................................................................................29 1Introduction Since the advent of the US-China trade tensions, there has been a growing debate on theimpact of rising barriers to trade on global and bilateral trade patterns.1 Geoeconomicfragmentation poses losses to all countries in the medium to long term, but may lead todifferent trade dynamics among countries in the short-term. Especially those that relyon an export-oriented growth model, are open to global trade and investment, and aredeeply integrated into global supply chains may be able to withstand trade tensions moreeffectively. So called “connector” countries have been argued to benefit from bridging thegap between trade blocs, for example, increasing exports to the US as they substitutefor declining US sourcing from China, while at the same time increasing their importsfrom China (Fajgelbaum et al., 2021; Alfaro and Chor