不仅仅是关税：在碎片化的全球经济中重新思考非关税措施

It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a FragmentedGlobal EconomyPublic Disclosure Authorized Daria TaglioniHiau Looi KEE Development EconomicsDevelopment Research GroupOctober 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11236 Abstract As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) havebecome central to trade policy, especially in high-incomecountries and regulated sectors like food and green tech-nologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, theycould also sort countries and firms into or out of marketsbased on compliance capacity and differences in productmix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation ofad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers newpatterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income coun tries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, whilelow- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs ontheir exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs dispro-portionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit andconcentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productiv-ity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use candeliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, anddiagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—andrisks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs:Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy∗ Keywords:tariffs,Non-tariffmeasures,tradepolicies,regulatorysorting. JELCodes:F13,F18 1Introduction Global trade tensions have returned to center stage, but the mechanisms of protection haveevolved. Traditional tariffs have decreased significantly over the last three decades, in partdue to multilateral and regional trade agreements.Instead, non-tariff measures (NTMs)—ranging from food safety rules and product standards, to licensing requirements, and evencountervailing duties (CVDs) and export bans — have proliferated and emerged as thefrontline tools in many trade confrontations. (Figure 1). Just like tariffs, NTMs could affecttrade flows and prices. In addition, unlike tariffs, NTMs could be used to address social andglobal externalities, from protecting public health to addressing climate risks. But they alsofragment markets in subtler ways, by sorting countries and firms into or out of global tradedepending on their compliance capacity and product mix.This paper argues that NTMsnow define the geography of market access at least as much as tariffs. Because many NTMsare technical, legal, or regulatory in nature, they have often escaped the spotlight. However,there is a rich literature demonstrating that their impact on trade flows, compliance costs,and market dynamics can rival or even exceed that of tariffs. This paper documents recentevidence on their restrictiveness, their disproportionate impact on developing countries andsmall firms, and the risks and opportunities they pose for global development. UnderstandingNTMs as both regulatory instruments and de facto trade barriers is central to any meaningfuldebate about fragmentation and the future of globalization. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from Kee and Xie (2024) and Zavala et al. (2023) 2Defining and Measuring NTMs Non-tariff measures (NTMs) refer to “policy measures, other than ordinary customs tariffs,that can potentially have an economic effect on international trade in goods, changing quan-tities traded or prices or both” (UNCTAD, 2013, 2019).1 They encompass a wide array ofinstruments, from sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements, technical barriers to trade(TBTs), and certification systems, to import licensing, quotas, price controls, and exportbans. Many NTMs may serve legitimate domestic objectives—such as protecting food safetyand public health, or addressing climate and security risks.They also shape trade flowsand patterns, either positively (e.g. via increasing consumer confidence) or negatively (e.g.via increasing compliance costs), and alter market access, at times unintentionally excludingfirms or countries. Classifications of NTMs can be legal or functional.Legal typologies, such as the officialUNCTAD framework classification (UNCTAD, 2013, 2019) distinguish three broad typeso