2026-2036年全球机队及维护、维修和运营（MRO）市场预测

Foreword Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026-2036 is our firm's 26th annualassessment of the 10-year outlook for the global commercial airline fleet and the maintenance, repair,and overhaul (MRO) market. This year, we present our research ina redesigned format to better In the report that follows, we focus on the record-setting year of 2025 and detail the status of thefleet at a time of global and industry turmoil. Demand for travel has reached new heights and drivenup revenues. At the same time, supply chain, workforce, and quality challenges cascading through the In the year ahead, industry leaders will need vigilance and creativity to manage fast-changingcircumstances and fly a safe, efficient fleet. Oliver Wyman's Aviation and Aerospace partners and We look forward to collaborating with you. Brian PrenticePartner andStudyLeader Contents 01 Executive summary..........................................................................................................102 State of the industry........................................................................................................603 Global trends..................................................................................................................1104 The MRO supercycle......................................................................................................20 For the first time, global passenger revenues for the airline industry are expected to top $1 trillionin 2025. Demand reached a new high, with a record 5.2 billion people traveling by air. Revenue Those passengers, however, flew on increasingly aging aircraft, as manufacturing capacity couldnot keep up with this robust demand. At the start of 2026, about 17,000 unfilled aircraft orders were In response to the shortfall, airlines are keeping planes in service longer and flying them more.In 2025, the average age of the global fleet was just short of 13 years, about a year and a half morethan in 2024. Average flight hours per aircraft increased 2% year-over-year, with utilization projected The gap between supply and demand leaves the industry unable to fully capture the financialbenefits of soaring demand. Increases in manufacturing, maintenance, workforce, and other costswere offset by a 16% decline in jet fuel prices, and the industry wasmoreprofitable in all regionsother than North America, where growth was flat. While the industry is committed to net zero Supply chain tensions throttle expansion A thriving aviation industry depends on a robust supply chain, but tensions throughout the systemhave slowed the industry’s post-pandemic recovery. Raw material shortages, geopolitical volatility The fragile supply chain was not the only disruptor last year. Weather and technology-relateddelays, labor unrest in several markets, the US government shutdown, and shortages of air trafficcontrollers impacted schedules and costs. Another factor affecting fleet expansion was a wave ofretirements of skilled workers. As the last of the baby boomgeneration leaves the workforce, takingtheir expertise with them, the industry is struggling to attract and retain younger generations of Retirements are affecting management as well, and the leadership gap is an emerging concern. Aslowdown in hiring in the 2000s and 2010s has resulted in fewer middle managers with the expertise Production lags force industry to rely on an aging fleet As of early 2026, the global commercial in-service aircraft fleet (excluding Russia) totaled about30,000 aircraft. By the end of our forecast period, we expect the fleet to number about 41,000 aircraft—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%. That growth lags our pre-pandemic forecast by six years.Supply chain issues will limit annual aircraft production worldwide until at least 2030,representing more Both Airbus and Boeing, the industry’s leading manufacturers, have been unable to meet theirambitious production targets. Airbus holds 49% of the order book, with Boeing at 38%. Narrowbodyaircraft orders dominate, reflecting the desire to increase efficiency. Airbus aims to produce 75 A320aircraft per month by 2027, but that seems unlikely: It produced only 54 per month at the end of 2025. Looking across the globe, China will add the most aircraft over the next decade. India will experiencethe highest growth rate, at 7.1% CAGR, followed by the Middle East, with a CAGR of 5%. The MROsupercyclepushes up revenues as well An older fleet needs more maintenance and more replacement parts. That demand has pumpedup prices for both parts and labor, extending thesupercyclethat began following the pandemic in themaintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) segment of the market. Global MRO demand was$136 billion in 2025, an 8% increase from $126 billion in 2024. By the end of the decade ahead, Not all news is good in the MRO market. Technical challenges with engines and broader supply chainconstraints, including shortages of materials