2025-2035年全球机队和MRO市场预测

2 © Oliver Wyman25 YEARS OF THE GLOBAL FLEETAND MROMARKETFORECASTOliver Wyman’sGlobal Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025–2035marks our firm’s 25thassessment of the 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associatedmaintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. We began this report at the dawn of themillennium, before wecould conceive of the horrors of the September 11 terrorist attacks orCOVID-19 pandemicthatchanged the industry forever.Through it all, theforecast provided the sector with insights into what to expect next. We’rehonored and humbled to say that this annually produced research has become a staple resourcefor executives working in aerospace manufacturing, airlines, MRO, and aviation investment.2025 has already been an eventful year for the aviation industry as passenger demand looks toexpand beyond five billion passengers and the aviation industry races to keep up amid productionshortfalls, delivery backlogs, supply chain delays, and worker shortages. As always, we hope youfind the data and insights in our latest edition illuminating and helpful as you look to seizeopportunities and better navigate the perils of the marketplace. We also invite you to takeadvantage of other signature researchfrom Oliver Wyman, including the popular MRO and FlightOps Surveys and the work done on ONEOrder and sustainability. Later this year, we plan to launcha companion forecast on the global military fleet, so stay tuned.The Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecastis part of our expanding aviation technical expertise.About a year ago, we brought together two dedicated teams, all driven by the same goal: raisingthe bar on aviation technical knowledge and expertise. The merger of Oliver Wyman CAVOK andSeaTec Consulting and the creation of Oliver Wyman Vector have been game changers for our firm,exponentially expanding our horizons. The data and analysis in this Forecast are the productofourdedicatedOliver WymanVector analysts and technicians and Oliver Wyman’s MarketIntelligence team.While it has not been the easiest first half of the decade, we look forward to the next five and10yearsand feel confident they will be game changers for the industry as well. As they have for thepast24 years, our partners and vice presidents stand ready to answer questions and expand uponour 25thforecast. Oliver Wyman and Oliver Wyman Vectorlook forward to another year ofcollaborating with you.Brian PrenticePartner and study leaderOliver WymanAnthony DiNotaSenior Vice President and General ManagerOliver WymanVector 3 © Oliver WymanCONTENTSExecutive Summary.........................................................................................................5State of the Industry......................................................................................................11Global Fleet Growth and Trends..................................................................................20MRO Market...................................................................................................................35 4 © Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY © Oliver WymanPRODUCTION SHORTFALLSANDTHEAGINGFLEETWhile demand for air travel has grown beyond its 2019 peak, the production of aircraft has yet tomatch the high point it set in 2018. Every year since, the aerospace industry has fallen short of notonly its all-time high but also of manufacturing enoughaircraft to satisfy an expandingmarket forair travel.Where in 2018 it produced over 1,800 aircraft,aerospace producersrolled outfewer than 1,300bythe end of 2024—30%lessthan it did six years before. Meanwhile, the number of passengershashitan all-time high, and global revenue per kilometer (RPK) is up nearly4% from its2019peak.Today, the backlog of unfilled aircraft orders stands at over 17,000 jets—thehighest ever. Givencurrent rates of production, those orders will take 14 years to clear—twice as long as airlines hadto wait prior to 2019.The shortage of aircraft means more airlines must fly older planes, which pushed up the averageage of the global fleet by an unprecedented full year in 2024. It also is taking its toll on fuel efficiency,which benefits from the newer jets’improved design and technology.According to the InternationalAir Transport Association (IATA), global fuel efficiency remained unchanged in 2024—a significantdeparture from the 1.5% to 2% annual improvement that is typically realized as new aircraft enterthefleet. This hurts the bottom lines of airlines as well as the battle against climate change.PLAYING CATCH-UP ON FLEET GROWTHAt the beginning of 2025, the global fleet comprised a little over 29,000 aircraft. Based on ouranalysis in the latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast, it should expand to over 38,300 by2035. While that represents a respectable 2.9% compound annualgrowth rate, the 2035 fleet willstill be more than 2% below the number we predicted for the 2030 fleet in our last forecast beforethe declaration of the COVID pandemi