2025年商务旅行市场展望

2025 Outlook Produced by Research & Intelligence December 2024 Travel Market Report2025 Outlook Welcome to the latest edition of theTravel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. The Research & Intelligence team This quarter’sTravel Market Reportis dedicated entirely to presenting anoutlook for 2025. It includes the following content: Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence •A review of the prospects for the world economy in 2025, including thethemes defining the economic landscape•A focus on some of the key risks travel managers and travelers may have todeal with in 2025•An update on the state of air travel, an exploration of yields and what thiscould mean for corporate deals, the latest on airline distribution, and ourglobal airfare forecasts for 2025•The outlook for hotel room rates in 2025, starting with a global overviewand followed by the numbers for key markets in Africa and the Middle East, Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager, •Our views on car rental, including the factors driving rates in 2025 MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Economicoutlook for2025 Global growth to stay unchanged in 2025 The global economy has so far delivered upside surprises during 2024,prompting Oxford Economics toupgrade its expectations for annual economic growth from2.3% at the start of the year to2.7%in its latest While the U.S. presidential elections have resolved one of the big unknowns for 2025, a lot of uncertaintyremains around the nature and extent of the policies to be implemented by the next administration. Thismatters, as they have the potential to impact economies around the world. America’s choice will resonate U.S. to continue outperforming other advanced economies Over the last two years, the U.S. has grown more quickly than other advanced economies. This is expected tocontinue in 2025, but to a lesser degree. While the fiscal stimulus anticipated from the incoming administration Fiscal and trade policy take center stage Higher and more volatile prices to become the norm With globalization continuing to unwind, geopolitics will retain its potential to cause supply shocks to theglobal economy. So too will climate change, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent anddisruptive. Policymakers will be mindful of the inflationary consequences, but this should not prevent centralbanks from lowering interest rates. While interest rates typically grab the attention, it’s been fiscal policythat’s recently delivered the economic growth surprises. This isparticularly true in the U.S., where government support packages flowed An aging population, greening of the economy and investment in defense will all drive increased governmentspending. Add to this the effects of an expected tax giveaway in the U.S., and central banks may be inclined to The large number of national elections held in 2024 has increased thescope for fiscal policy adjustments around the world. Typically, fiscal Uncertainty around government policy will be particularly acute in respectof trade, with the breadth and depth of the incoming U.S. administration’sdeployment of tariffs a big unknown. While the U.S. might enjoy thebenefits of reducing its trade deficit, the rest of the world may suffer the Travel riskoutlook for2025 Travel risks Climate change Expect more frequent and severe weather events in 2025, posing not only direct risks to employees, but also disrupting theirtravel plans. Businesses will need to adapt their travelpolicies to cope with increased disruption and ensure they have robust incident management processes in place to protect traveling employees. AI, cybersecurity and misinformation With advances in artificial intelligence (AI) coinciding with a rise in mis-and disinformation and cybersecurity system vulnerability, expect elevated travel risk in 2025. Social media isparticularly exposed to mis-and disinformation disseminated by AI. Travel managers must be even more vigilant in ensuring theyuse only trusted sources for incident intelligence, ifthey are to avoid falling prey to false information that could significantly impact travelers. Cyber crime will also proliferate, with AI-enhanced phishing scams and ransomware attacksposing extra risks. The CrowdStrike global IT outage also exposed travel’s dependence on IT and the vulnerability of some ofitssystems. As travel-related mobile apps and services Geopolitics The geopolitical landscape will remain subject to rapid change and complexity, posing concerns for both travelers and their companies. The situation in the Middle East has joinedRussia’s invasion of Ukraine as a pivotal geopolitical issue. The ambitions of major powers, including China, India and the U.S., further complicate international relations. An escalation Focus on mental health +37%The growing recognition of the importance of mental health in the workplace has its own specific resonance for business travel.The unique challenges posed by