益普索2026年预测报告

A 30-Country IpsosGlobal Advisor Survey December 2025 CONTENTS 1 2 10 6 8 7 Some sunshine after the rain ▪Twointhree(66%onaverageacross30countries)say2025wasabadyearfortheircountry,while34%thoughtitwasagoodyear. ▪Atthesametime,half(50%)said2025wasabadyearforthemandtheirfamily,whiletheotherhalf(50%)saiditwasgood. ▪Peoplearefeelingmuchbetteraboutthingsthantheywerein2020whenawhopping90%(onaverageglobally)saiditwasabadyearfortheircountryand70%saiditwasabadyearforthempersonallyintheimmediatewakeoftheCOVID-19pandemic. ▪Closetothree-quarters(71%)areoptimistic2026willbebetterthan2025,while29%don’tthinknextyearbebetterthanthisyear.Meanwhile,therecontinuestobemutedhopethatthewarinUkrainewillendwithonly29%thinkingthefull-scaleinvasionwillendnextyear. ▪Justunderhalf(49%)predicttheglobaleconomywillbebetterin2026thanin2025,whileasimilarproportion(51%)thinktheeconomywillbeworse. ▪Optimismthatthefuturewillbebetterthanthepresentdroppedninepercentagepoints(pp)to65%attheendof2022(ayearmarkedbyinflation,aglobalpandemicandthefull-scaleinvasionofUkraine)andhasyettofullyrecover.Andbeliefthattheglobaleconomy Q. 2025 in anhistorical context Please indicate if youagree very much, agreesomewhat, disagreesomewhat or disagree Q. Outlook for 2026 ina historical context Please indicate if youagree very much, agreesomewhat, disagreesomewhat or disagree Economy, job worries hover ▪Almosthalf(48%onaverageglobally)predicttheircountrywillbeinrecessionin2026,whileone-third(33%)don’tthinkthisislikely. ▪Meanwhile,peoplearesplitonwhethertheirdisposableincome(whatonecanspendafterpayingbillsforlivingexpenses)willbehigherin2026thanitwasin2025;almosthalf(47%)thinkthisislikely,with43%disagreeingthey’llhavemoremoneytospendnextyear. ▪Andclosetotwoinfive(38%)thinkmajorstockmarketsaroundtheworldwillcrashin2026,while39%don’tthinkthisislikely.Thelasttimeweaskedthisquestioninlate2021asimilarproportion(35%globally)thoughttherewouldbeamajorcrashintheyearahead. ▪Two-thirds(67%)predictartificialintelligence(AI)willleadtomanynewjobsbeinglostintheircountry,upslightlyfromlastyear(64%).Meanwhile,justovertwoinfive(43%)predictAI ▪CurrentfearabouttheriseofAIleadingtosignificantdeclineinnewjobsrunsthegamutfromahighof76%inbothIndonesiaandSingaporetoalowof46%inJapan.OverthepastyearworrythatAIwillcostjobsrosein21of30countries. Artificial intelligence will lead tomany new jobs being lost in my % Net agree change between2024 and 2025 Possible dangers loom around the corner ▪Slightlymorethanone-quarter(29%onaverageglobally)thinkamajorterroristattackwillbecarriedoutintheircountryin2026,whileaslimmajority(51%)don’tthinkthiswillbethecase. ▪Peoplearesplitonwhetherlocalpublicsafetywillgetbetter,with46%predictingtheareawheretheylivewillbelesssafein2026thanitwasin2025and49%disagreeingwiththis. ▪Closetothreeinfive(59%)thinktherewillbealarge-scalepublicunrest(suchasprotestsorriots)intheircountrytoprotestagainstthewaythecountryisrun,whilealmostone-third(31%)thinkthisisunlikely.Thelasttimeweaskedthisquestioninlate201956%thoughtpublicunrestwaslikelyand33%thoughtitwasunlikely. ▪Almosteightin10thinkaverageglobaltemperatureswillincreasein2026,withthe Andjustovertwo-thirds(69%)thinktherewillbemoreextremeweathereventsintheir ▪Hopethatpublicofficialswilltakeactiontofightclimatechangeisrelativelystable.Almosthalf(48%)nowpredictthatthegovernmentinone’scountrywillintroducemoredemanding Q. Expectations forthe environment in2025 in an Please indicate if youagree very much, agreesomewhat, disagreesomewhat or disagreevery much with the Best laid plans ▪Astrongmajority(75%onaverageglobally)saytheyplantoexercisemorein2026thantheydidin2025,withGenerationZ*women(81%)themostlikelycohorttosaythisandBabyBoomermen(65%)theleastlikelytosaythey’llbebreakingasweatmoreinthenewyear. ▪And60%ofallrespondentssaythey’llspendmoretimeontheirappearancein2026.GenZmenandwomen(bothat72%)arethemostlikelycohortsandBoomermen(36%)theleast ▪Meanwhile,82%plantospendmoretimewithfamilyandfriendsin2026,withabouteightin10acrossagesandstagesplanningtodoso. ▪Oneinthree(37%)saytheywillusesocialmedialess,while53%thinkthisisunlikely.BabyBoomerandMillennialmen(bothat41%)arethemostlikelytoclaimthey’llbedoinglesspostingandscrollingnextyearandGenZwomen(32%)aretheleastlikelytothinkthis. ▪Almostthreeinfive(59%)plantowatchthe2026football/soccerWorldCup,withGenZmen(71%)sayingthey’llbetuninginwhileBoomerwomen(39%)aretheleastlikelytosaythis. *Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979)and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965). GOOOOAL! % who plan to watch the2026 football/soccer Strengthening borders, shrinking populations ▪Justoverthreeinfive(62%onaverageglobally)thinkthelevelofimmigrationintotheircountrywillincrease,downfrom67%whosaidthesamelastyear. ▪Americansarenowtheleastlikelytothinkthis(29%,downfrom56%lastyear)amidU.S.PresidentDonaldTrump’ssweepingimmigrationreformssincetakingofficeearlierthisyear. ▪WhileTrumphassaidhewa