欧盟国防开支的宏观经济影响

Macroeconomic Impacts Prepared by Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra,Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, Ana Sofia Pessoa, and Alexandre WP/26/53 IMF Working Papers describe research inprogress by the author(s) and are publishedto elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026MAR IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Defense Spending Prepared by Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, Ana Sofia Pessoa,and Alexandre Sollaci * Authorized for distribution by Davide Furceri IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Europe’s defense spending is undergoing a historic shift. With NATO members expected to reach2% of GDP and discussions underway to increase targets to 5% by 2035, this paper examines the possiblemacroeconomic consequences of such rearmament using two complementary approaches. First, using anannual panel dataset covering 27 EU countries over the period 1989–2023, we show that past national defensespending has stimulated economic activity in the short term, and entailed sizable cross-border spillovers.Importantly, we find that spending multipliers varied considerably across countries and over time: they tendedto be larger when import intensity is low, fiscal space (captured by sovereign yields spread) is ample, and RECOMMENDED CITATION:Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, AnaSofia Pessoa, and Alexandre Sollaci. “Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Defense Spending”. IMF Working Paper * The authors wish to thank Alan Auerbach, Robert Beyer, Edoardo Briganti, Yongquan Cao, Francesca Caselli, Giancarlo Corsetti,Era Dabla-Norris, Allan Dizioli, Christopher Erceg, Carlos Goncalves, Ethan Ilzetzki, Kareem Ismail, Takuji Komatsuzaki, GeoffKeim, Andresa Lagerborg, Raphael Lam, Moheb Malak, Akito Matsumoto, Karel Mertens, Flavien Moreau, Gilles Mourre, MarcoPoplawski-Ribeiro, Ricardo Reis, Preya Sharma, Rodrigo Valdes and participants in the XXIII Banca d’Italia Public FinanceWorkshop, held at the Banca d’Italia, in September 4-5, 2025, and in the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department seminar for helpfulcomments and suggestions. We thank Victoria Haver for excellent research assistance and Aniket Yadav (Taiyo) for valuable DFurceri@imf.org; PJuarros@imf.org; saurabh@taiyo.ai;ANguyen3@imf.org; APessoa@imf.org; ABalduinoSollaci@imf.org WORKING PAPERS Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Prepared by Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra, Anh DinhMinh Nguyen, Ana Sofia Pessoa, and Alexandre Sollaci CONTENTS I.INTRODUCTION________________________________________________________________________________ 7Related Literature _________________________________________________________________________________ 9 II.MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS AND TRANSMISSION CHANNELS __________________________ 11 Exogeneity of Defense Spending Shocks _________________________________________________________ 12Baseline Results __________________________________________________________________________________ 13Robustness Checks _______________________________________________________________________________ 14Transmission Mechanisms________________________________________________________________________ 15Heterogeneity of Defense Multiplier _____________________________________________________________ 16 III.THE IMPACT OF HIGH-FREQUENCY DEFENSE PROCUREMENT SHOCKS_________________ 21 Data Construction ________________________________________________________________________________ 21Validity Checks and Summary Statistics __________________________________________________________ 23Estimating the Defense Multipliers _______________________________________________________________ 23Endogeneity ______________________________________________________________________________________ 24Robustness Checks _______________________________________________________________________________ 27 IV.CONCLUSION ________________________________________________________________________________ 29 REFERENCES _____________________________________________________________________________________ 31 ANNEXES A. Data Sources___________________________________________________________________________________ 56B. Additional Results and Robustness Checks: Defense Spending Multiplier _____________________ 57C. Heterogeneity of Defense Spending___________________________________________________________ 62D. Spillovers of Defense Spending Shocks _______________________________________________________ 67E. OpenTender Monthly Procurement Database _________________________________________________ 68F. Monthly GDP construction _____________________________________________________________________ 69G. Robust Inference with Weak Instruments _____________________________________________________ 71H.