私人资本监测：恐惧与厌恶

3 March 2026 Luke Templeman | Thematic Strategist | Luke.Templeman@db.com | +44 207 541 0130Galina Pozdnyakova | Research Analyst | Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com | +44 207 547 4994 IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS. Executive summary Table of contents: See our 2026 private capital outlookhere. •In spite ofthe negative headlines and market performance, the largest managers continuewith their exceptional fundraising and AUM growth. The focus is now on keeping thefundraising momentum, including among retail investors, in 2026. •Rather than investing in AI models directly, managers are focusing on "picks and shovels"plays like data centres, power generation, and electrification. On earnings calls, they alsospent time rationalising their software investments and detailing portfolio exposures and •More transparency and communication are likely as private capital targets a more risk-averse and liquidity-demanding investor base to grow. •Any serious fallout from the actual impact of AI and credit fears on private capital is likelyto be highly concentrated in the smaller, lower quality corners of the industry. •Dry powder continues to rise and acts as a sizable buffer to any sector-specific problems. •Outside software, exits are growing quickly–this should assuage investor concerns aboutprivate equity and free up more capital to do deals. •A material economic slowdown is likely required for the low confidence in the industry totranslate into larger problems. 01.Q4 2025 results What do earnings calls from large, listed managers say about the private capital environment?Key themes Overall sentiment across the managers is highly optimistic, citing strong 2025 performance,successful strategic execution, and a constructive outlook for 2026. The primary themesrevolve around significant growth in fundraising and AUM, strong investment performancedriving future opportunities, diversification across new products and markets, and a positive 1. Exceptional Fundraising and AUM Growth Fuelled by DiversificationManagers reported record-breaking fundraising and AUM growth in 2025, attributing this success to strategic diversification and strong investor demand across a wide range of products and channels. 2. AI and Digital Infrastructure as a Generational Investment OpportunityThe dominant thematic opportunity discussed was the build-out of digital infrastructure to support the AI revolution. Rather than investing in AI models directly, managers are focusing on "picks and shovels" playslike data centres, power generation, and electrification, viewing it as a multi-decade tailwind. 3. Strong Investment Performance & Outlook for RealizationsFirms emphasized strong underlying portfolio performance, characterized by robust revenue and EBITDA growth, as a key driver of recent and future success. This performance, coupled with improving capitalmarkets, is creating a positive outlook formonetizationsand returning capital to investors, which in turn is 4. Expanding into New Markets: Insurance, Wealth, and 401(k)A major strategic focus is the expansion into new distribution channels beyond traditional institutional LPs. The private wealth, insurance, and retirement (401(k)) markets are seen as vast, under-penetratedsources of long-term capital. What do earnings calls from large, listed managers say about the private capital environment?Key risks The primary risk discussed was external market perception and sentiment, specifically regarding software company valuations andthe health of the privatecredit market. While managers universally downplayed the direct financial risk to their portfolios, they acknowledged the impacton their stock prices and on 1. Software/AI Disruption & Valuation Concerns 2. Private Credit Health and Retail Channel Headwinds Concerns about the health of the private credit market, driven by the software sell-off,have led to headwinds in the private wealth channel, particularly for non-traded BDCs.While firms reported meeting all redemption requests, they acknowledged a slowdown Recent public market volatility in software stocks has created significant investorconcern about the impact of AI disruption and valuation resets on private marketportfolios. All managers reported their software exposure to be low and intentionally selective.•KKR: ~7% of AUM Blue Owl noted that industry-wide, non-traded BDCs "experienced a slowdown incapital raising and elevated redemptions during the fourth quarter," which is in linewith prior periods of volatility and fear. However, they fulfilled all tender requests,viewing it as crucial for maintaining investor confidence and driving quicker •Ares: ~6% of total AUM, <9% of private credit AUM•Apollo: Exposure "rounds to zero" in their PE business and Athene balance sheet•Carlyle: 6% of total AUM•TPG: 11% of total AUM, but o