消费者检查点：假期准备还是跋涉？

Consumer Checkpoint: Holiday prep or schlep? 12 November 2025 Key takeaways •Total credit and debit card spending per household rose 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) in October - the strongest annual growthsince early 2024, according to Bank of America aggregated card data. Seasonally adjusted spending rose 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), the fifth consecutive month of gains, with services contributing the most to monthly spending growth for thesecond straight month. •Holiday shopping is up, but consumers may be paying more for less. Spending on holiday items per household surged 5.7% YoYthrough October, yet Bank of America card data shows retail transaction volumes have slightly declined since January. •Large gaps continue between both higher- and lower-income households' spending and wage growth. Higher-incomehouseholds saw 2.7% YoY spending growth in October, lower-income groups lagged at just 0.7%; after-tax wages increased at3.7% YoY for higher-income households and at 1.0% YoY for lower-income households. •Across all incomes, households hold more deposits than in 2019, suggesting they are in decent financial shape overall. However,the holiday season will bring some challenges - 62% of respondents to Bank of America's 2025 Holiday Survey reported feelingfinancial strain. Consumer Checkpointis a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a holistic and real-time estimate of USconsumers’spending and their financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America proprietary data. Such data is notintended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial conditions or performance ofBank of America. Fifth consecutive month of consumer spending increasesIn October, total credit and debit card spending per household recorded the largest year-over-year (YoY) jump since February 2024, up 2.4% YoY, compared to 2.0% YoY in September, according to Bank of America aggregated card data. Seasonallyadjusted (SA) spending growth per household increased 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), continuing a solid run of increases overthe past five months (Exhibit 1). Total credit and debit card spending growth per household, based on Bank of America card data (monthly, MoM%, SA) and (monthly, YoY%, non-SA) Spending could have been even higher without the government shutdown and Nor’eastersThe strength in October spending came despite the potential impact of the government shutdown and some weather events in The government shutdown would likely impact the Washington, DC metropolitan statistical area (MSA) most, as the federalgovernment accounts for about 19% of all employment in this area. And DC’s spending growth did lag the rest of the country,with card spending there growing less than across the rest of the US (Exhibit 2), mostly reflected in weaker discretionaryspending (Exhibit 3). Notably, spending also slowed in other east coast cities. In our view, this was partly due to the two Nor’easters that blewthrough the region in October, possibly dampening consumer spending as people rode out the storms inside. Exhibit2:Consumer spending in Washington,DC grew ata quarterof the rate of the rest of the USAggregated credit and debit card spending growth per household for Exhibit3:Discretionary spending in DC lagged growth from the restof the USCredit and debit card spending growth per household for Washington, DC Washington, DC and select eastern cities (October 2025, MoM%, y-axisleft-hand side (lhs)) and (October 2025, YTD%, y-axis right-hand side(rhs)) and select eastern cities by select categories (October 2025, MoM%) Services spending is driving MoM growth againLooking across categories, services spending (including restaurants) drove over half of overall spending growth, the largest contributor for the second month in a row (Exhibit 4). Meanwhile, retail (excluding gas and restaurants) spending made up arounda quarter of growth. Within services, households increased their spending on lodging MoM while maintaining some spendingmomentum on restaurants and airlines (Exhibit 5). Exhibit5:Lodging spending rose inOctober, while restaurantandairline spending was more steadyCredit and debit card spending per household on select categories Exhibit4:Services drove MoM overall card spending growthContribution to MoM total credit and debit card spending growth by category, based on Bank of America card data (monthly, SA, percentagepoints (pp)) (monthly, SA, index 2024 average = 100) Holiday outlook: Spending more, getting less? November and December account for an outsized share of retail spendingThe holiday season is key for many retailers, as November and December account for an oversized share of total yearly spending. Over 20% of general merchandise, electronics, and clothing-related card spending typically occurs in those two months (Exhibit6). And they account for nearly a quarter of card spending at jewelry stores. How w