小企业检查点：状态良好

Small Business Checkpoint: In OK-shape 18 November 2025 Key takeaways •The largest businesses have been leading the charge in job creation, painting a picture of a“K-shaped”recovery. Within Bank ofAmerica small business account data, there has been a deviation in profitability growth between those firms of the highest andlowest revenues. •According to Bank of America’s 2025 Business Owner Report, many business owners are approaching the next 12 months withcautious optimism, with nearly three out of four expecting revenue increases. But compared to last year, more small businessowners expect sales to decrease over the next 12 months, while fewer who run medium-sized firms expect that to occur. •With the holidays around the corner, there are crosscurrents for small businesses. On one hand, consumer spending on holidayitems was off to a strong start; on the other, tariff-related costs have surged for small businesses. Despite the pressure,inventory payments per small business client were up 0.6% year-over-year in October, though seasonal retail hiring remainsbelow last year’s levels. Spot the “K” There is growing evidence of a K-shaped recovery emerging between large companies and small firms, which indicates a split inwhich some groups improve while others fall behind. Within nonfarm private payrolls, businesses with >500 employees havelargely driven payroll increases since the second half of 2024–up 12% from the 2019 average–while those with 1-49employees rose just 6% in October, according to Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payroll services firm (Exhibit 1). Within Bank of America small business account data, profitability growth–as proxied by movements of inflows and outflowsinto small business accounts–for the smallest firms (annual revenues <$500K) has declined since August after showing outsizedgrowth through most of the last year (Exhibit 2). Meanwhile, by the same measure, profitability growth remains positive for thehighest grossing small firms (annual revenue >$1M). Exhibit1:Large businesses have largely driven payroll increasessince the second half of 2024 Exhibit2:After a strong year ofgrowth, profitability growth forthose small businesses with less than $500K in revenue has turnednegativeSmall business account inflow-to-outflow ratio by revenue tier (year- ADP nonfarm private payroll by business size (indexed, 2019 average =100, monthly) over-year (YoY)%, 3-month moving average, monthly) The 2025 Bank of America Business Owner ReportThe2025 Bank of America Business Owner Reportalso sheds light on the nuances between business size. Many business owners are approaching the next 12 months with cautious optimism, with nearly three out of four surveyed business ownersexpecting revenue increases. But looking year-over-year on revenue, more small business owners expect sales to decrease overthe next 12 months compared with last year’s survey, while fewer who run medium-sized firms expect that to occur (Exhibit 3). Rising cost pressures may be contributing to small businesses’cautious outlook on future revenue. According to the survey, onaverage, these companies reported shouldering higher costs over the past 12 months compared to their peers at medium-sizedfirms (Exhibit 4). However, overall, owners of medium-sized companies were more likely to report cost increases, with vendorsincreasing rates and employee wages taking the top spots (Exhibit 5). Though some costs equal investment. AI has become essential to business owners, with 77% having integrated it into theiroperations in the past five years. Of those, they are using it for marketing (50%), content production (38%), customer service(37%) and inventory management (28%). According to Bank of America small business account data, small business payments totech services, including AI, were up nearly 8% YoY in October. Exhibit3:Overall, more small businesses expect revenue over thenext 12 months to decrease compared to last yearLooking at the next 12 months, which of the following best describes Exhibit4:Medium sizedbusiness ownersmore often reported anincrease in costs, although small business owners had a greatermagnitudeOver the past 12 months, how much have your business costs increased? your revenue expectations? Revenue will... (% of respondents by ownertype, YoY%) (% of respondents by owner type) Are small businesses ready for the holiday season?As the holidays near, small businesses are seeing some positive activity. Consumer spending growth on holiday items per household surged 5.7% YoY through October (read more on this in theNovember Consumer Checkpoint)–marking a fast start tothe season. One of the reasons this year’s holidays will stand out from previous years will be the tariff impact to small firms. When we lookby revenue tier, small business account data shows that immediately following“Liberation Day”on April 2, of the small subset ofclients making direct payments to Customs and Border Protection (CBP), those firm