小企业检查点：翻过这一页？

Small Business Checkpoint: Turning the page? 15 January 2026 Key takeaways •Small business profitability edged higher in 2025, with the Bank of America small business account inflow‑to‑outflow ratiorising slightly above 2024 levels. However, profits lost steam as the year closed, with year‑over‑year (YoY) profitability growthturning slightly negative for the second consecutive month in December, reflecting mounting cost pressures. •In the last few months of 2025, small business uncertainty trended downwards and optimism improved, according to theNational Federation of Independent Business. Still, small business uncertainty has remained historically high over the pasteighteen months due to a mix of consumer spending trends and policy affects such as tariffs. •After slowing throughout much of the second half of 2025, small business hiring activity picked up at year‑end, with paymentsto hiring firms up 7% from the 2024 average. Small retailers led the rebound, while services continued to lag, leaving the keyquestion for 2026 as whether firms are ready to start hiring again. Profits remain positive, but growth is mutedHow did small businesses close out the year? Profits for 2025, as measured by Bank of America small business accounts’inflow- to-outflow ratio, came in slightly above 2024 levels, continuing a trend of increases over the past two years (Exhibit 1). However, growth slowed, and December marked the second consecutive monthly decline (Exhibit 2). Profitability growth year-over-year (YoY) for small businesses has been trending down since the start of 2025, likely due to increased costs driven in partby inflationary pressures. In fact, according to the December National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) report, priceincreases remain well above the historical average. Exhibit1:By a marginal amount, the small business profitabilityratio increased in 2025Small business account inflow-to-outflow ratio (annual average) Small business account inflow-to-outflow ratio (monthly, 3-monthmoving average, YoY%) Concerns about tariffs weigh on small firmsIn the last few months of 2025, small business uncertainty trended downwards, and optimism improved, according to the NFIB (Exhibit 3). An increase in those expecting better business conditions primarily drove the rise in optimism in December, anduncertainty reached the lowest reading since June 2024. Still, small business uncertainty has remained historically high over the past eighteen months due to a mix of policy affects as well as consumer spending trends (read more on this inJanuary 2026’sConsumer Checkpoint). Concerns about tariffs have been the major driver of the uptick in uncertainty this year. Of the small subset of clients who payCustoms directly, small business tariff payments year-over-year growth remains high while the number of transactions per clientturned negative several months throughout the year, according to Bank of America small business payments data. This suggests such firms may have struggled to maintain their supply chains or to reassess inventory needs. This is furtherevidenced by the sharp decline in imports seen in the October US trade deficit. Still, in the latest NFIB report, there was apositive shift from those business owners reporting a significant impact of supply chain disruptions to those reporting amoderate or mild impact. Exhibit3:In the last few months of 2025, small business uncertaintyfell,and optimism inched higherNFIB small business uncertainty index (monthly) and NFIB small business optimism index (monthly, seasonally adjusted, 1984=100) Small business hiring slowdown reverses at the end of yearThese cost pressures ultimately weigh on hiring decisions. According to Bank of America internal data, small business payments to hiring firms improved in December, after remaining down for most of the second half of the year (Exhibit 4). Such payments rose 7% from the 2024 average, and this follows an increase Bank of America payroll estimates in December(read more on this in theDecember Employment Report). It is also in line with Automatic Data Processing (ADP)’s report of a netgain of 9,000 jobs last month for firms with fewer than 50 employees–which was a reversal from shedding about 96,000positions in November. Exhibit4: Small business payments to hiring firms improved in the final month of 2025,rising7% from the 2024 averageSmall business payments to hiring firms per client (indexed, 2024 average, = 100, monthly, 3-month moving average) and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (indexed, 2024 average, = 100, monthly, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted (SA)) Small retailer hiring trends: A shift from 2024For retailers, the hiring landscape in 2025 contrasted sharply with the previous year (Exhibit 5). In 2024, small retailers had reduced their hiring activity, pulling back on payments to hiring firms. However, this trend reversed in 2025, as Bank of Americasmall business payment