研究所就业报告：2025年11月

The Institute Employment Report: November 2025 05 December 2025 Key takeaways •An estimate of payrolls based on Bank of America internal data shows year-over-year (YoY) payroll growth decelerated to 0.2%in November, easing from the 0.5% YoY growth in September and October. But the growth in the number of householdsreceiving unemployment benefits remained around 10% YoY in November, suggesting in our view that the labor market remainsin a "low-hire, low-fire" mode. •After-tax wage and salary growth rose across income cohorts in November, with higher-income households at 4.0% YoY,middle-income at 2.3% YoY, and lower-income at just 1.4% YoY. •It appears that the easing in lower-income households' wage growth may have leveled off, but a large gap between lower-income households' wage growth and higher-income households' wage growth remains. Low-hire, low-fire continuesWhat can Bank of America internal data tell us about the state of the labor market in November? Our data suggests payroll growth slowed in November, though remained positive year-over-year (YoY). Combined with no acceleration in the rise inunemployment payments into Bank of America customer accounts, the data suggests we remain in“low-hire, low-fire”mode, inour view. We use Bank of America internal deposit data to estimate a payrolls series by looking at how the number of customer accountsreceiving a paycheck is changing (see methodology). This data can be fairly noisy, partly due to seasonal variation. It is alsopossible that the government shutdown impacted the number of paychecks in November, but most federal employees didreceive back-pay once the shutdown ended mid-month, so we think the impact should be small. Exhibit2:Unemployment payments into Bank of Americacustomeraccounts rose around 10% YoY in November, similar to Septemberand OctoberNumber of households receiving unemployment payments (three-month Exhibit1:An estimate of payrollsfrom Bank of America internaldata suggests November saw some deceleration in YoY jobs growthPayroll estimates from Bank of America internal data (three-month moving average, % YoY), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) andAutomatic Data Processing (ADP) (monthly, YoY) moving average, YoY%, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)) and Continuingclaims (three-month moving average, YoY%, seasonally adjusted (SA)) Looking at a three-month moving average,Exhibit 1suggests that the year-over-year (YoY) growth in our payrolls measuredeclined to 0.2% YoY in November, a deceleration in the growth rate from around 0.5% YoY October and September. Exhibit 2shows that in November the growth in unemployment payments into Bank of America customer accounts remainedaround 10% YoY, a similar rate of growth to September and October. While the YoY growth in this data is higher than that in theBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continuing claims data, the overall impression is that there has not been a marked pickup in therise in unemployment. Overall, the picture of slowing jobs growth and fairly static growth in unemployment payments in our data is consistent with aview of a labor market in“low-hire, low-fire”mode. BofA Global Research has also discussed how slowing labor supply is onereason behind declining jobs growth, rather than it being largely driven on the demand side, which is also consistent with thispattern. Lower-income wage growth stabilizes, but a big divergence remainsLooking at pay growth, Bank of America deposit data showed higher-income households’after-tax wage and salary growth rising to 4.0% YoY in November, the highest rate of growth since October 2021. There were also rises in growth for middle-incomehouseholds, to 2.3% YoY, and for lower-income households, to 1.4% YoY. Pulling back, it appears possible that the deceleration in lower-income households’wage growth that occurred over the springand summer has now leveled out. Despite this, the gap between the after-tax wage and salary growth of higher-incomehouseholds and that of lower-income households remains large, at 2.6 percentage points (pp) in November. Exhibit3: InNovember,lower-income households’ after-tax wage growthrose to1.4% YoY, while higher-income households’ wage growthwas4.0% YoY After-tax wage and salary growth by household income terciles, based on Bank of America aggregated consumer deposit data (3-month moving average, YoY%,SA) MethodologySelected Bank of America transaction data is used to inform the macroeconomic views expressed in this report and should be considered in the context of other economic indicators and publicly available information. In certain instances, the data mayprovide directional and/or predictive value. The data used is not comprehensive; it is based onaggregated and anonymizedselections of Bank of America data and may reflect a degree of selection bias and limitations on the data available. Any payments data represents aggregated spend from US Retail, Preferred, Small Business and Wealth Management clients