2025年贸易偏好展望：在不确定时期的导航

Technical and statistical report Trade Preferences Outlook 2025Navigating in times of uncertainty Technical and statistical report Trade Preferences Outlook 2025Navigating in times of uncertainty Requests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to theCopyright Clearance Center at copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: United Nations Publications405 East 42nd Street, S-11FW001New York, New York 10017United States of AmericaEmail: publications@un.orgWebsite: https://shop.un.org/ The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do notimply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerningthe legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning thedelimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. This publication has not been formally edited. ISBN: 978-92-1-158814-9eISBN: 978-92-1-154751-1Sales No. E.26.II.D.12 Acknowledgements Trade Preferences Outlook 2025was prepared under the general guidance of Luz María de laMora, Director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities of the United NationsConference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and under the supervision of Miho Shirotori,by a team composed of Taisuke Ito, Mesut Saygili and Federico Manto. Substantive inputs and comments were provided by Ebru Gökçe Dessemond, Graham Mott,Ralf Peters, Samuel Munyaneza, Alessandro Nicita, Marco Fugazza, Carlos Razo, EdmundBaker and Julia Gruebler. Laura Moresino-Borini undertook desktop publishing for the publication. Abbreviations and acronyms ACPAfrica, Caribbean and PacificAGOAAfrican Growth and Opportunity ActAVEad valorem equivalentCBICaribbean Basin InitiativeDCTSDeveloping Countries Trading SchemeDFQFduty-free quota-freeEBAEverything but ArmsECAEconomic Commission for AfricaEIUEconomist Intelligence UnitESCAPEconomic and Social Commission for Asia and PacificFDIForeign Direct InvestmentFTAfree trade agreementGPTGeneral Preferential TariffGPTPGeneral Preferential Tariff PlusGSPGeneralized System of PreferencesGSP+Generalized System of Preferences PlusGSTPGlobal System of Trade Preferences among developing countriesHELPHemispheric Opportunity through Partnership Enhancement for HaitianProsperityHOPEHaiti Economic Lift ProgramLDCleast developed countryLIClow income countryLMIClower middle-income countryMFNmost-favoured nationNRTPnon-reciprocal trade preferencePPPpurchasing power parityRoOrules of originTINATrade Intelligence and Negotiation AdvisorTUITrade Uncertainty IndexUMICupper middle-income countryUSITCUnited States International Trade CommissionWITSWorld Integrated Trade SolutionWTOWorld Trade Organization Executive summary Non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) have long been a cornerstone of export-ledgrowth, industrialization, and poverty reduction in developing economies, particularly least-developed countries (LDCs). By offering duty-free or duty-light access to advanced markets,these schemes – such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), the African Growthand Opportunity Act (AGOA), or the Everything-but-Arms (EBA) initiative, among others – havecontributed to developing countries’ export expansion and integrating into global value chains. The stability and predictability of NRTPs, however, have come under threat. A global shift towardeconomic fragmentation and protectionism has undermined trade predictability. Global policyuncertainty has curtailed export growth, discouraged investment, and disrupted participationin global supply chains, particularly for countries heavily reliant on preferential market accessunder NRTPs. The combined effects of global uncertainty and the increasing use of unilateral tariffs areincreasing trade costs, particularly for LDCs and vulnerable economies that have leveragedNRTPs to expand exports. When faced with abrupt changes to preferential market access,past examples suggest that these countries may face significant export losses (Chapter I). Thedamage may be extensive, particularly to countries that export manufactured goods rather thanraw commodities, and those that lose all preferential market access available to LDCs as a resultof their “graduation” (Chapter II). Given the impacts on trade of preference-dependent countries, any policy changes to NRTPsmust be gradual. Changes to preferential market access should follow a transition period andeconomic support, to ensure that preference-receiving countries preserve the trade relationships,production capacities, and investment flows nurtured under NRTPs. For such support to achievemaximum effect, open discussion at the global level on the future of NRTPs and coordinationamong all preference-granting and preference-beneficiary economies would be necessary(Chapter III). Notes References to Latin America