经合组织经济展望，第2024卷第2期：不确定时期的弹性

December 2024 OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK 116DECEMBER 2024 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law. Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. ISBN 978-92-64-92833-6 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-46443-8 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-71348-2 (HTML) OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574 (print)ISSN 1609-7408 (online) Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2024 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Table of contents Acknowledgements7 EditorialResilience in uncertain times9 Introduction12Recent developments14Projections28Risks32Policies42References54Annex 1.A. Policyand other assumptions underlying the projections57 2 Understanding Labour Shortages: The Structural Forces at Play Introduction60In most OECD countries, labour markets are cooling after severe tightness during the post-pandemic recovery61Firm-level evidence: insights from a new Employer Survey68Transformative policy action is needed to address labour shortages80Conclusion91References92 3 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies ArgentinaAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBrazilBulgariaCanadaChileChinaColombiaCosta RicaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaEuro area FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMalaysiaMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPeruPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovak RepublicSloveniaSouth AfricaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandThailandTürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesViet Nam FIGURES Figure1.1. Global growth has been stable with servicesoutperforming manufacturing activity15Figure1.2. Job vacancy rates have declined16Figure1.3. Real household disposable income is above the pre-pandemic trend in some countries17Figure1.4.Household saving rates have increased further in some countries amid weak confidence18Figure1.5. Explaining the recent evolution of consumer confidence19Figure1.6. Further declines in the price of energy and food relative to core items would boost consumerconfidence20Figure1.7. Food and energy inflation has outstripped household income growth in many countries21Figure1.8. Inflation has continued to decline to be increasingly in line wi