墨尔本2026年第一季度经济租金报告

Estimates of the economic rent for a premium office tower inMelbourne CBD are significantly above current and forecast rentallevels. This indicates a constraint on development feasibility which willlead to continued office supply restraint over the coming years. Q1 2026 Click here tosubscribe Key insights The development pipeline is slowing markedly, in part due to a surgein economic rents. Higher construction costs and other marketmovements are making most new developments unfeasible at thepresent time; but this sets the scene for future strong rental growth. Tony McGoughPartner, Head of Research & Consulting, Victoria $1,348Economic rent in Q4 2025 $951 Forecast rent in Q4 2025 42% Gap between economicand forecast rent Economic rents are estimated to be at$1,348/sqm. This is the rent requiredin Q4 2028 to make a new premiumoffice tower feasible to commence nowin Melbourne CBD. Forecast rents are estimated at$951/sqm. This is the forecastpremium Melbourne CBD rentexpected in Q4 2028 if rents grow at4% per annum. Difference between economic rent andthe forecast rent if constructioncommenced in Q42025. Economic rents areabove forecast rents Economic rents haverisen sharply Melbourne CBD economic rents for a new premiumoffice tower are estimated at $1,348/sqm (net facerent) in Q4 2025, a 135% increase since Q1 2021. Economic rents are estimated to be 42% above theforecast level of rent upon development completion–assuming construction starts in Q4 2025. Multiplefactors drivinghigher development costs Development pipelinehas thinned out Elevated economic rents are being driven by acombination of higher construction costs, elevatedinterest rates, a softening in yields (and the resultingfall in asset valuations) and increased incentives. The development pipeline has thinned out asdevelopers find it difficult to meet feasibility criteria.Post-2026 there is a greatly diminished supplypipeline for Melbourne. Viability different in keyprecinctsand projects Developmentdeliverynotviable untilnear2031 Due to bifurcation in the Melbourne CBD marketcertain precincts (especially the Eastern Core)become viable much quicker.Certain projects willstill see the numbers add up. Economic rents are projected to be relatively close toforecast rents in Q3 2029. If realised, this impliesfurther new developments would not be delivereduntilat least Q4 2033. Melbourne CBD economic rentto moderate supply Economic rents have risen ECONOMIC RENTS HAVE RISEN SHARPLY ECONOMIC RENTS ARE ABOVE FORECAST RENTS Both current and forecast premium rents remain wellbelow economic rent levels. In Q4 2025, economic rentswere 42% higher than the estimated rent at developmentcompletion and 60% above current premium rents. Thishistorically wide gap between economic and forecastrents underscores the challenge of achieving financialfeasibility for new office developments in the currentmarket environment. Economic rents–the level of rent at which theconstruction of a new development becomes feasible–have risen sharply since 2021 due to a significant rise inconstruction costs, interest rates, yields, and incentives. In Q4 2025, for a new premium office tower in MelbourneCBD–starting construction this quarter with a three-yearconstruction period–we estimate that the economic rentrequired upon completion is $1,348/sqm (net face rent).That is, the developer needs to receive an average rent of$1,348/sqm across the building in the first year of leases(starting in Q4 2028) for the development to be deemedfeasible–defined as the owner receiving a 10% projectedIRR. As a result, the pipeline for new office supply in the CBDhas thinned out with several projects that had previouslystated start dates being deferred or moved to mooted afterfailing to meet feasibility criteria. There is littlecommitted new supply beyond 2028. This extendeddrought of new supply is likely to reshape the MelbourneCBD office market for years to come. Economic rental growth in Melbourne’s CBD has faroutpaced premium office rental growth in recent years.Since Q1 2021, economic rents have surged by 135%,compared to just 16% for premium rents. As of Q4 2025,the average premium office rent stood at $845/sqm.Looking ahead, using a forecast that assumes 4% annualgrowth, this has premium rents reaching $951/sqm bydevelopment completion in Q4 2028. Melbourne CBD economic rent has risen sharply Estimate of economic rent required at project completion for a Melbourne CBD premium development versus forecast rent [currenmarket rent plus 4% p.a. growth over 3 years] ($/sqm, net face rent) Economic rent is well above forecast rent Difference between Melbourne CBD economic and forecast rent (%, economic rent divided by forecast rent) Supply pipeline has fallen OFFICE SUPPLY PIPELINE WILL REMAIN CONSTRAINED and it is no wonder that developers have stepped awayfrom committing to new builds or major refurbishmentsgoing forward. This is precisely the pricing conundrum tha