2026年第一季度阿德莱德经济租金报告

Estimates of the economic rent for a A-grade office tower in AdelaideCBD are above current and forecast rent levels. This indicates thecurrent constraints on development feasibility, which are leading to athin office supply pipeline over the coming years. Q1 2026 Click here tosubscribe Key insights Economic rents have surged since 2021 as a mix of rising costs andmarket pressures put the brakes on new office development. Thesupply pipeline in Adelaide CBD remains relatively thin which isexpected to underpin strong rent growth over the coming years. ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING $900 Current forecast rent $1,150Current economic rent 27% Gap between economicand forecast rent Economic rents are estimated to be at$1,150/sqm (gross). This is the rentrequired on construction completionin Q4 2028 to make a new high A-gradeoffice tower feasible in Adelaide CBD. Forecast rents are estimated at$900/sqm. This is the forecast high A-grade Adelaide CBD rent expected onconstruction completion in Q4 2028 ifrents grow at 4% per annum. Current economic rents are 27% aboveforecast rents if constructioncommenced in Q4 2025. Economic rents areabove forecast rents Economic rents haverisen sharply Current Adelaide CBD economic rents for a new highA-grade office tower is estimated at $1,150/sqm (grossface rent), an 93% increase since Q1 2021. This is therent required in Q4 2028 for viable development. Economic rents are estimated to be 27% above theforecast level of rent upon development completion–assuming construction starts in Q4 2025. Several factors drivinghigher development costs Development pipelinehas thinned out Elevated economic rents are being driven by acombination of higher construction costs, elevatedinterest rates, a softening in yields (and the resultingfall in asset valuations) and elevated incentives. The development pipeline has thinned out asdevelopers find it difficult to meet feasibility criteria.New supply is expected to fall below the long-termaverage with no new supply expected in 2027. Development forecastto be viable in 2030 Economic rents areforecast to remain stable Economic rents are projected to be near forecast rentsin 2030–meaning that new developments will befeasible. This projection implies there may not be anynew developments delivered until 2033. Yields are forecast to compress throughout 2026 and2027, but this will be offset by rising constructioncosts. Economic rents are expected to remainrelatively stable at $1,150 until 2030. Economic rents moderate in Adelaide Economic rents have risen A STEEP RISE SINCE 2021 ECONOMIC RENTS NOW WELL ABOVE FORECASTRENTS Economic rents–the level of rent at which theconstruction of a new development becomes feasible–have risen sharply since 2021 due to a significant rise inconstruction costs, interest rates, yields, and elevatedincentives. Economic rent growth in Adelaide’s CBD has far outpacedA-grade office rent growth in recent years. Since Q1 2021,economic rents have risen by 93% (14.1% p.a.), comparedto 23% (4.2% p.a.) for high A-grade* market rents. In Q42025, the average high A-grade office rent stood at$811/sqm (gross face rent), well below the national averageof $1,108/sqm. Looking ahead, a forecast that assumes 4%annual growth has high A-grade rents reaching $900/sqmby development completion in Q4 2028. In Q4 2025, for a new high A-grade office tower inAdelaide CBD–starting construction this quarter with athree-year construction period–we estimate that theeconomic rent required upon completion is $1,150/sqm(gross face rent). That is, the developer requires anaverage rent of $1,150/sqm across the building in the firstyear of leases (starting in Q4 2028) for the development tobe deemed feasible–defined as the owner receiving a 14%project IRR. This implies that both current and forecast high A-grademarket rents are well below our estimated economic rentrequired for viability. In Q4 2025, economic rents were27% higher than the estimated rent at developmentcompletion and 42% above current high A-grade rents. In modelling economic rents, we assume that high A-grade Adelaide CBD office yields remain steadythroughout the construction period at their current level.The completed building is assumed to sell at 25bps belowthe current average yield for the three best A-grade assetsin the CBD (6.5%) to reflecta new building premium (seepage 5 for more detail on the methodology). This historically wide gap between economic and forecastrents underscores the challenge of achieving financialfeasibility for new office developments in the currentmarket environment. As a result, the pipeline for newoffice supply in the CBD has diminished substantially,with only a few developments expected to proceed untilthe gap narrows around 2030. *High A-grade rent = Average of 83 Pirie Street, Festival Tower 1 and 10 Franklin Street Adelaide CBD economic rents are nearing the peakEstimate of economic rent required at projec