AI智能总结
Demand across Melbourne’s CBD office market remainsresilient,supportedby strong net absorption.Vacancyis likely to risefurtherinthe short-term asnew supply completes,butfundamentals remainfavourable. Asignificantcontractionin developmentisexpectedto underpin future rental growth. February 2026 knightfrank.com.au/research Key Insights Melbourne recorded its highest annual net absorption since2018. However, vacancy rose over the same period due to thecompletion of several largely vacant refurbished assets. Marco MascitelliAssociate Director, RESEARCH & CONSULTINGLaurence PanozzoResearch & Consulting 29k 100k 19.0% Sqm net additions in 2025 12-month net absorption Latest vacancy-CBD Net absorption in Melbourne reachedits highest annual total since 2018. Netabsorption for prime stock totalled40,070 sqm over 2025,whilesecondarytotalled-10,595sqm;supporting thebifurcation theme in the market. Net additions reached a 4-year high in2025 with 4 new refurbishments and 2developments reaching completion.Supply is forecast to be equallystrongin 2026 with several developmentsreaching completion. Melbourne’s CBD vacancy rate rose1.1% over H2-2025 to 19.0%. The rise invacancy wasmainlydueto theaddition of several mostly vacantrefurbishments such as 111 Bourke Stand 800 Collins St. 5.2% 47.6% 6.8% Yield Q4’25–prime basket Primerentalgrowth Primeincentives Prime yields in Melbourne’s CBDsoftened 3 bps q/q to 6.76% whilstsecondary yields softened 15 bps to7.82%. The spread between prime andsecondary yields, 107 bps, is at a 10-year high. Prime incentives continue theirgradual fall, down 0.2% q/q to average47.6%. Incentives range between 47.0-53.5% across all the precincts exceptthe Eastern Core where they average40.0%. Prime net face rents were up 5.2% in2025, their highest increase in 3-years.Most of the growth was concentrated inthe Eastern Core where net face rentsrose 10.4%. Melbourne economy TRANSPORT AND EVENTS STRENGTHEN CBD APPEAL Townhall Station–Opened December 2025 In late 2025, Melbourne completed the Metro Tunnel, atransformative infrastructure project that is reshaping howcommuters travel to the CBD. More than 70,000 passengersused the network on its first official day, highlighting itsimmediate impact. Over the longer term, the project isexpected to reduce congestion across the City Loop andaccelerate access into the CBD. The newly delivered TownHall Station provides direct access to theeastend of CollinsSt.for the first time, significantly enhancing connectivity tothe rail network. These improvements are expected toincrease workforce accessibility and support a recovery infootfall. Beyond major transport upgrades, large-scaleevents continue to enhance the vitality and appeal of theCBD. The 2026 Australian Open attracted 1.3 millionattendees over three weeks and supported approximately16,000 jobs. Global events of this scale, alongside the F1Grand Prix, reinforce Melbourne’s international profile andenhance its internationalappeal,generatingsubstantialeconomic benefits which are expected to flow through tooffice market performance. FUNDAMENTALSIN VICTORIA ARE STILL STRONG Despitestrongerpercentage population growth inQueenslandand Western Australia, Victoria continuestoattract the largest number of new residents nationally. Yearto June 2025, Victoria recorded net population growth of123,507 people, with net interstate migration remainingbroadly flat. GDP growth is forecast to strengthen in 2026 to2.0%, up from 1.8% in 2025, and is expected to acceleratefurther to 3.0% in 2027. Demand TENANT DEMAND ACCELERATES IN 2025 Net absorption across Melbourne’s CBD reached itshighest level since 2018, with +29,475 sqm recorded in 2025.This also marked the first positive annual result since 2020,signalling a clear improvement in market conditions. Theflight-to-quality trend persists with prime net absorptiontotalling +40,070 sqm, while secondary space recorded a netloss of-10,595 sqm. Most CBD precincts recorded increased absorption in H22025. Docklands led the market, with occupied space risingby 32,485 sqm, driven by several tenants expanding andothers relocating from Metro and City Fringe locations. Morethan half of the Eastern Core’s +16,389 sqm gain wasattributable to Corrs Chambers’ relocation from the Spencerprecinct to approximately 9,000 sqm of high-rise space at120 CollinsSt. ROBUST LEASE REQUIREMENT VOLUMES In 2025, 210 CBD lease briefs were released to the marketat an average size of 1,535 sqm, totalling more than 300,000sqm of active requirements. With most occupiers yet tofinalise their accommodation decisions, leasing volumes areexpected to strengthen in 2026 compared to 2025. Professional Services was the most active industry inMelbourne’s CBD leasing market in 2025, accounting for31%of total deal volume, followed by Finance and Insurance at25%.Together, these sectors represented half of all spaceleased. Other prominent sectors included Retail, Logistics,Education, and Co