高经济租金导致2026年第一季度珀斯供应干旱

Estimates of the economic rent for a premium office tower in PerthCBD are significantly above current and forecast rent levels. Thisindicates the severe constraints on development feasibility, which willlead to a drought of new office supply over the coming years. Click here tosubscribe Q1 2026 Key insights Economic rents have surged since 2021 as a mix of rising costs andmarket pressures put the brakes on new office development. With nonew supply under construction, Perth CBD office rents are poised for ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING $1,280 $880 46% Current economic rent Gap between economicand forecast rent Current forecast rent Forecast rents are estimated at$880/sqm. This is the forecastpremium Perth CBD rent expected onconstruction completion in Q4 2028 if Economic rents are estimated to be at$1,280/sqm. This is the rent requiredon construction completion in Q4 2028to make a new premium office tower Current economic rents are 46% aboveforecast rents if constructioncommenced in Q4 2025. Economic rents areabove forecast rents Economic rents haverisen sharply Current Perth CBD economic rents for a newpremium office tower are estimated at $1,280/sqm(net face rent), an 100% increase since Q1 2021. This is Economic rents are estimated to be 46% above theforecast level of rent upon development completion– Development pipelinehas thinned out Several factors drivinghigher development costs The development pipeline has thinned out asdevelopers find it difficult to meet feasibility criteria.There is no new supply under construction that is Elevated economic rents are being driven by acombination of higher construction costs, elevatedinterest rates, a softening in yields (and the resulting Development forecastto be viable around 2030As prime rents rise, they will gradually close the gap Economic rents areforecast to remain stable Yields are forecast to compress throughout 2026 and2027, but this will be offset by rising constructioncosts. Economic rents are expected to remain with economic rents, with the gap to close by around2030. This implies that there will be few, if any, major Economic rents have risen A STEEP RISE SINCE 2021 ECONOMIC RENTS NOW WELL ABOVE FORECASTRENTS Economic rents–the level of rent at which theconstruction of a new development becomes feasible–have risen sharply since 2021 due to a significant rise in Economic rent growth in Perth’s CBD has far outpacedpremium office rent growth in recent years. Since Q1 2021,economic rents have surged by 100% (doubled), comparedto just 22% for premium rents. As of Q4 2025, the averagepremium office rent stood at $803/sqm. Looking ahead, a In Q4 2025, for a new premium office tower in Perth CBD–starting construction this quarter with a three-yearconstruction period–we estimate that the economic rentrequired upon completion is $1,280/sqm (net face rent).That is, the developer needs to receive an average rent of$1,280/sqm across the building in the first year of leases This implies that both current and forecast premium rents are well below our estimated economic rents. In Q42025, economic rents were 46% higher than the estimatedrent at development completion and 60% above current In modelling economic rents, we assume that premiumPerth CBD office yields remain steady throughout theconstruction period at their current level. The completedbuilding is assumed to sell at 25bps below the currentaverage yield for premium assets in the CBD (6.9%) to This historically wide gap between economic and forecastrents underscores the challenge of achieving financialfeasibility for new office developments in the currentmarket environment. As a result, the pipeline for new Perth CBD economic rents are nearing the peak Estimate of economic rent required at project completion for a Perth CBD premium development versus forecast rent [current market rent plus3% p.a. growth over 3 years] ($/sqm, net face rent) Economic rent is well above forecast rentsDifference between economic and forecast rent (%, economic rent divided by forecast rent) Drivers of high economic rents HIGHER CONSTRUCTION PRICES INCREASE COSTS INTEREST RATES RISE TO CONTROL INFLATION,RAISING BORROWING COSTS Since 2021, Australia has seen a sharp increase inconstruction costs, driven by a combination of global anddomestic supply-side pressures. Construction costs for anew premium tower in Perth have risen 64% from$4,541/sqm (gross floor area) in Q1 2021 to $7,455/sqm Q42025. The rise in costs has occurred across both materials Starting in 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)implemented the largest and fastest interest rate increasesin decades to rein in inflation as the economy emergedfrom the pandemic. From Q1 2021 to Q4 2023, the cash raterose by 425 bps and 2-year swap rates rose by 380 bps,significantly lifting funding costs for owners/developers. HIGHER YIELDS REDUCE CAPITAL VALUES RENTAL GROWTH HAS NOT OFFSET THESE FACTORS The Perth