工业硅3月报

第一部分前言概要.................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2【交易逻辑】...................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2第二部分基本面情况...........................................................................................................................................3一、行情回顾...................................................................................................................................................3二、需求：3月工业硅需求环比增加............................................................................................................4三、供应：3月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂复产....................................................................................7四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空................................................................................9第三部分后市展望及策略推荐.........................................................................................................................11免责声明.................................................................................................................................................................12 工业硅3月报 区间震荡，关注大厂复产情况和煤炭价格 第一部分前言概要 【供需展望】 交易咨询业务资格： 【【【【[2011]1428【研究员：【【【电话：邮箱：chenhansong_qh@chinastock.com.cn期货从业资格证号：F03129697投资咨询资格证号：Z0020351 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1.8【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【8.4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【15【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 作者承诺 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【交易逻辑】 3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【8000,9000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【7500【/【【【【 【策略推荐】 1.【【【【【【【【【【【【【8000,9000【【【【【【【【【【2.【【【【【3.【【【【【 银河期货 风险提示：煤炭价格超预期变化 工业硅3月报 第二部分基本面情况 一、行情回顾 2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8400-8500【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅3月报 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 二、需求：3月工业硅需求环比增加 1、3月DMC产量有增加可能 2025【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2024【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2025【11【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【40【【【【【【【【【【【2026【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【DMC【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【62%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【70%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【 工业硅3月报 【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【Wind【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 2、3月多晶硅产量增加 1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【1【【【【7.7【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1.8【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【8.4【【【【【 工业硅3月报 3、3月铝合金和出口对工业硅的需求环比增加 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2025【10【1【【【【【2025【10【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2025【12【【【【【【【5.90【【【【【【【8%【【【【【2%【2025【1-12【【【【【【【【【【【72.06【【【【【【【1%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅3月报 2026年2月27日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 三、供应：3月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂复产 【【2【【【【【【221【【【【【【【【【【【108【【【【【【29【【【【【48.86%【2【【【【16.88【【【【【【【7.91【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅3月报 2026年2月27日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【148【【2025【【【【【【【【【【【55【【【【【【37.16%【【【【【【【【【【【【9【【【【【【【【【【【【【【6.08%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【0【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【15【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200【【【【【【【【【【【【421【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅3月报 2026年2月27日 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【100【【【【【【【55.7【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【20.35【【【【【【【【【23.99【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【10【【【 工业硅3月报 2026年2月27日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅3月报 2026年2月27日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 第三部分后市展望及策略推荐 供需展望：【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1.8【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【8.4【【【【【【【【【