人工智能会引发通缩吗？没那么快…

Global Letter: Is AI disinflationary? Not so fast… EconomicsGlobal The recently nominated Fed Chair started a debate on whether the disinflationary forcescreated by the AI revolution justify further rate cuts by the Fed.We think there is not yetenough evidence that this will be the case, and in the best case scenario,theseimprovements in productivity materialize in the long run, the short run dynamics of US: Broadening investment to strengthen growth AI investment was a positive for growth last year, and the latest guidance fromhyperscalers suggests it isn’t going anywhere this year. But we expect investment to bemore than just AI this year. We have seen early signs of a broadening out inmanufacturing activity. Broader investment should contribute to better labor demand Euro area: France – Désinflation deluxe French disinflation went further/faster than elsewhere in the Euro area. Monetary policyseems too tight for France. It may have been a lucky coincidence that fiscal policy Claudio IrigoyenGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 1734claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com UK: Data to support gradual cuts Antonio GabrielGlobal EconomistBofAS+1 646 743 5373antonio.gabriel@bofa.com Next week’s data to show slowdown in inflation, moderation in pay and soft labourmarket. This should reinforce our view of gradual cuts in March and June. But we don’t GlobalEconomics TeamBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts Asia: Taiwan – Upgrade GDP forecast We raised Taiwan's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0%, from 4.5% previously, followingthe blowout surge in 4Q25 export-led growth. The revision reflects our sustainedoptimism over Taiwan's technology driven expansion and is reinforced by several recent Emerging EMEA: Nigeria – Dangote, FX & oil markets Crude oil production has increased to a peak of 1.5m bpd to reflect positive fiscalincentives and support for exploration. As FX demand for oil imports is declining, current Latin America: Brazil – rare earths, a rare opportunity China does almost all rare earth separation process in the world, despite having only49% of its global reserves.Brazil is the country with the largest reserves of rare earthsin the western hemisphere (23%), but is <1% of global supply. Limited processing BofA Securities does and seeks to dobusiness with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Global Letter Claudio IrigoyenBofAS Antonio GabrielBofAS Is AI disinflationary? Not so fast… The recently nominated Fed Chair started a debate on whether the disinflationary forcescreated by the AI revolution justify further rate cuts by the Fed. The argument goes thatAI-driven technologies will boost productivity growth, reduce costs and create a virtuous We think there is not yet enough evidence that this will be the case, and in the best casescenario, these improvements in productivity materialize in the long run, the short rundynamics of inflation will be dictated by the associated boom in investment and The long run: lower cost of production Can the AI revolution reduce the production costs of the economy and therefore highernon-inflationary long run growth? Yes, assuming those improvements in technologyreally take place, which is uncertain at this point, at least its scope. Productivity growthmeans the economy can use its resources more efficiently and produce the same withless resources or more with the same resources. However, these improvements in Will this translate into lower inflation? The evidence on this point is less clear, becausetechnological improvements create significant change in relative prices, particularly theprice of goods vs services. If some prices fall because of AI-driven lower costs ofproduction, the improvement in purchasing power can be used to buy other goods andservices, which might not have benefited from the tech boom and/or whose supply is A good example of this is China entering WTO while increasing the supply of labor aswell as incorporating new technologies to produce goods that are very low cost andeffectively export deflation in goods to the rest of the world. Even though the USimported deflation in goods from China, overall inflation remained around 2% because The short run: investment and wealth effect What we discussed above is the impact of AI on the supply side of the economy.However, before that happens, there are demand side effects that need to beconsidered. For those improvements in productivity to happen, companies need to investfirst. The expected improvement in technology increases the expected marginal product This alone creates bottlenecks as the economy might not have enough supply of inputsneeded to execute those projects at current prices. That means more price pressure inthe short run on critical inputs. The obviou