2026年2月欧洲央行货币政策决定

Lecture at Maynooth University www.ecb.europa.eu ©Philip R. LaneMember of the Executive Board 9February 2026 RubricMonetary policy in the euro area HICP inflation(annual percentage points) Non-energy inflation(annual percentage points) Energy inflation(annual percentage points) RubricInflation developments HICP inflation Food, NEIG and services inflation(annual percentage points) (annual percentage points) HICP inflation–Q4-on-Q4 profile(Q4-on-Q4 percentage changes) HICP inflation–annual averages (annual percentage changes) RubricEuro area export similarity with China Share of sectors where both euro area andChina display a high comparative advantage(index) China: long-run import elasticity to GDP(rolling estimate over 40 quarters) RubricSemiconductors and high-tech products Decomposition of global tradegrowth Global semiconductor revenuesby region(annual percentage changes, percentage points) Global trade in high-tech goods (annual growth rate, percentage points) www.ecb.europa.eu©Sources: Trade Data Monitor and ECB staff calculations.Notes:The axes refer to the net export share of high-tech products in thecountry total trade and country’s share in global trade betweenJanuaryand October in 2024 and 2025. High-tech goods correspond tothe classification by the European Commission. “Taiwan-AI” observationshows AI-related goods only. ASEAN stands forAssociation ofSoutheast Asian Nations. RubricEuro area exports Drivers of euro area export market share(percentage deviations from trend; percentage point contributions) RubricExchange rates and commodity prices RubricPMIs, GDP and short-term estimates Consumer dashboard(low-highpercentiles, unless otherwise indicated) Private consumption andshort-term indicators(quarter-on-quarter percentage changes, percentage point contributions) RubricHousing investment Housing investment andshort-term indicators Housing investment dashboard (low-highpercentiles, unless otherwise indicated) (left-hand scale: quarter-on-quarter percentage change;right-hand scale: diffusion index) RubricBusiness investment Business investment andshort-term indicators Business investment dashboard (low-highpercentiles, unless otherwise indicated) (left-hand scale: quarter-on-quarter percentage pointcontributions; right-hand scale: diffusion indices) RubricDigital investment and AI use Digital investment proxy for euro area,with asset breakdown(left-hand scale: EUR billions; right-hand scale: 2014 = 100) RubricLabourmarket LinkedIn hiring rate andIndeed job postings(index: January 2020 = 100) RubricFiscal policy Underlying fiscal position(cyclically adjusted primary balance as a percentage of GDP) Fiscal stance(change in cyclically adjusted primary balance-to-GDP ratio in RubricComposition of defence spending Breakdown of the increase in defencespending by functional category RubricCore inflation components Services inflation and forward-lookingprice indicators(annual percentage changes, percentage points) RubricEuro area imports Average growth in import prices fromChina in the third quarter of 2025(year-on-year percentage change) RubricWage developments Wage tracker with unsmoothed one-offpaymentsand the implied wage drift(percentages;percentage point contributions) Wage growth measures(annualpercentage changes and percentage points) RubricWage expectations SAFE wage growthexpectations CTS wage growth expectations (annual percentage changes) (Likert scale from-2 to +2) RubricMeasures of inflation expectations BoRto euro areainflation(left panel:1 = 100 percentage points; SAFE: median inflationexpectations of firms(annual percentage changes) CES: consumer inflationexpectations(annual percentage changes) SPF: inflationexpectations(annual percentage changes) www.ecb.europa.euSources: LSEG, Bloomberg and ECB calculations.Notes: The balance of risks (BoR) is defined as thedifference between the options-implied risk-neutralprobability of average inflation being above versusbelow 2% over the lifetime of the option contract (seeGarcia et al., 2024). The latest observations are for 5February 2026. 22Source: Survey on the Access to Finance ofEnterprises (SAFE).Notes: Survey-weighted median of euro area firms’expectations for euro area inflation in one, three andfive years. The statistics are computed after trimmingthe data at the country-specific 1st and 99thpercentiles. The latest observations are for the fourthquarter of 2025. © RubricRisk-free interest rates Euro areaOIS slope and ten-year decompositioninto expectations and term premia(left panel: percentages per annum, percentage points; right panel: €STR forward curve and surveyexpectations of the deposit facility rate(percentages per annum) basis points) RubricFinancial conditions Decomposition of the Macro-FinanceFinancial Conditions Index (cumulative changes inbasis pointssince 17 December 2025) RubricMoney creation and debt financing Net debt financing flows of euroarea f