欧洲央行2025年12月货币政策决定

Philip R. LaneMember of the Executive Board19 December 2025 RubricMonetary policy in the euro area RubricInflation developments and outlook December 2025 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area:key macroeconomic variables RubricRisks to the growth and inflation outlook – December Governing Council RubricPrivate consumption Private consumption and saving rateoutlook RubricHousing investment Housing investment and short-termindicators RubricBusiness investment RubricOutlook for exports Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.Notes: The latest data point for the extra-euro area is approximated bydeflating October values with producer export prices. “United States(excluding weight-loss drugs)” excludes the HS6 code 293719. The latestobservations are for October 2025.Sources: Eurostat and CPB.Notes: The latest data point for the extra-euro area is approximated bydeflating October values with producer export prices. The latestobservations are for September 2025 for global imports and for October2025 for the rest. RubricExchange rate developments Effective exchange rates for theeuro vs selected Asian currencies(index: 31/01/2014 = 100) Sources:ECB and ECB staff calculations.Notes: The real CNY/EUR refers to the consumer price index(CPI)-deflated bilateral exchange rate (right-hand scale). Anincrease denotes an appreciation of the euro. The latestobservations are for November 2025. Sources:ECB and ECB staff calculations.Notes: The real USD/EUR refers to the consumer price index(CPI)-deflated bilateral exchange rate (right-hand scale). Anincrease denotes an appreciation of the euro. The latest RubricImport intensity of China’s economic activity RubricLabour market: labour demand and surveys Euro area job vacancy rate(vacancies per unemployed workers, percentage) RubricFiscal projections and impact of new defence and infrastructure spending RubricGoods and services inflation RubricDomestic cost pressures Compensation per employee and its maincomponents in 2025 RubricWage trackers RubricMeasures of inflation expectations RubricNominal interest rates Euro area OIS slope and ten-year decompositioninto expectations and term premia RubricFinancial conditions RubricMoney creation and debt financing Bank loans to households bypurpose(left-hand scale: monthly flows in EUR billion, right- (left-hand scale: monthly flows in EUR billion, right-hand scale: annual percentage changes)hand scale: annual percentage changes)Other lending RubricBank lending and securities held Loan volumes and interest ratesfor large relative to small firms Bank lending to NBFIssince Q1 2024 Loans granted andsecurities held by euro area banks