欧洲央行的货币政策

Member of the Executive Board 17 November 2025 RubricMonetary policy in the euro area RubricInflation developments Sources: Eurostat, September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomicprojections and ECB calculations.Note: PCCI excluding energy is computed taking the quarterly average ofmonthly series. The latest observations are for the third quarter of 2025. RubricInflation developments and outlook HICP inflation – Q4 on Q4 profile(Q4-on-Q4 percentage changes) HICP inflation – annual averages(annual percentage changes) RubricEuro area export similarity with China Long-run elasticity of imports to GDP –rolling window estimate over 40 quarters RubricEuro: exchange rate patterns Real EUR vs CNY, JPY andKRW Sources: ECB and ECB staff calculations.Notes: Range and average calculated from 2014 to present. Average since2014 normalised to 100. Rates are quoted such that lower means weaker.CNY real effective exchange rate (REER) is calculated using CPI. The latest RubricLabour market RubricWages RubricTransmission Decomposition of 10-year EA OIS rate intoexpectations and term premium RubricCredit to households and firms Sources: ECB (BSI) and ECB calculations.Notes: Bank loans are seasonally adjusted and adjusted for sales and securitisation. Thelatest observations are for September 2025. RubricThe role of asset markets: the European context •Draghi and Letta reports: there is much scope to boost the aggregategrowth rate of the European economy, including by deepening theSingle Market •Faster growth implies an increase in asset supply: needs a matchingincrease in asset demand •Rising public debt also boosts asset supply: needs an additionalincrease in asset demand •Boost household asset demand; boost foreign investor demand forEuropean assets •Savings and investments union; banking union; EU-level bond supply;international role of the euro: in combination with pro-growth economic RubricPotential gains •Sustainable improvement in economic performance•Stronger wealth accumulation by European households•Greater resilience to country-level shocks RubricSavings and investments union: key measures •Encouraging retail participation (SIAs; financial literacy)•Developing supplementary pensions (auto enrolment; IORP Directive; PEPPRegulation)•Market integration and supervision•Promoting equity investment by institutional investors; EuVECA Regulation