全球军用飞机机队和维持展望

2026-2036 Tableof contents 01Aboutthisreport 02Stateofthesector 03Fleetgrowth09 04Sustainment/MROtrends 05Criticalthemes•Europe rearmament•US defense spending priorities•Fighter modernization 06Concludingthoughts Aboutthis report About this report This report offers Oliver Wyman’s view of key demand trendsin the global military aviation sector. About this report Price escalation versus inflation This reportexamines select trends in both the supply and demandsides of the military aircraft market, including: Oliver Wyman’s model of demand formilitary aircraft sustainment,which includes MRO, is based onconstant 2025 US dollars.The forecast does not include inflation projections, which •Military aircraft procurement plans•Military aircraft inventories•Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) demand Our model sometimes includesestimates for price escalationamong parts and labor in major categories of MRO work, It's a follow on to anearlier release that provided an overviewof the 2025-2035 forecast period. Parts escalation is based on our market survey dataand RBC quarterly information. The report highlights shifting dynamics, and willbe produced annuallygoing forward, capturingshifts in military aircraft defense spendingand procurement forthe geographic regions it covers. Labor input is based on the US consumer price indexand Oliver Wyman analysis. Our objective with this document is to highlight important trendsthat our clients and other industry players need to understandto make smartinvestment and planning decisions. Throughout, values are presented in constant dollarsunless otherwise noted. Stateof the sector State of the sector The 2026-2036 report reflects Oliver Wyman’s proprietary forecastfor growth in the global military aviation fleet and MRO market demand Market growth overview Key trends in military aviation procurement Military aircraft deliveries and change in fleet size US budget shifts European rearmament Fiscal year 2026 Departmentof Defense budget proposes higheraviation spending but delays a ramp-up in aircraft procurement, spending European governments are expandingdefense spending in the wake of Russia’sinvasion of Ukraine and other aggressiveposturing. This has prompted highernear-term demand for fighters andother aircraft and increased spending Deliveries will grow by 15% (value) over the decade: •The active global fleet will grow from 44,700 aircraftat the start of 2026 to 50,700 at the beginning of 2036•The expansion is driven primarily by higher Europeandefense spending and an increase inuncrewed aerial Military aircraft sustainment demand Uncertainty overthe fate of rotorcraft Combat aircraft evolution Demand for sustainment, which includes MRO activity, will growat 1.1% CAGR between 2026 and the beginning of 2036, 11 times Fourth-andfifth-generation aircraftdeliveries will grow in the near-term,especially outside the United States. Technological change and survivabilityconcerns are expected to reduce demandforhelicopters. The US Army plansa substantial force reduction in attack •Rising engine maintenance spending•Higher utilization among European air forces•Higher sustainment requirements and costsamong the more complex, newer platforms Investment in uncrewed combat aircraftis growing and will create significant State of the sector Major defense trends governing the growth of the military aviation fleet The US, on the other hand, has delayed procurementfor some crewed aircraft in favor of near-term research 2025 saw some dramatic shifts in the defense postures and gameplans of the United States and its major European allies. The fleet itself is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rateof 1.3% over the next decade. …of next-generation models and advanced capabilities.This translates to a slower CAGR for the US military fleet, Primarily responsible for that growth is European rearmament. Europe is pushing for immediate increases in defense capabilitiesthrough significant increases in defense spending by Europeanmembers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Between 2019 and the beginning of 2030, defense budgetsfor the US and Canada are expected to rise about 4.5% annually. While significant, it's less than one-half the rate at which Europeanspending is slated to expand in that period and about the same rate In response to the ongoinginvasion of Ukraine, Russian violationsof NATOairspace, and cyberattacks and disinformation campaignsreportedly perpetrated by Russia, NATO's European members Because of escalating geopolitical tensions in almost all partsof the world, security concerns are expected to remain close to the top Along with infrastructure and military aid spending, this could amountto as much as a doubling of spending on defense, assuming the nationsfollow through, over the next five years with the bulk offunds going This international friction has been exacerbated by the increasingfragmentation of the glo